Canada’s federal political picture still looks comfortable for the Liberals, but the newest numbers come with unusually important fine print. Liaison Strategies places the Liberals 11 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with Prime Minister Mark Carney maintaining strong approval while Pierre Poilievre continues to face difficult personal ratings.
The complication is timing. Most interviews were completed before Canada-U.S. trade negotiations collapsed and Washington’s latest tariffs took effect. Since then, the confrontation has escalated further, meaning Canadians are now reacting to an economic and political environment that the poll largely never measured. The 11-point Liberal advantage is therefore significant, but the next reading could prove more revealing than this one.
The Liberals Remain at 43% as the Conservatives Sit at 32%
Liaison Strategies’ August 24 federal tracker puts the Liberals at 43% among decided and leaning voters, compared with 32% for the Conservatives. The NDP stands at 13%, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the Greens at 3%, the People’s Party at 2%, and other parties at 1%. Just as important as the size of the Liberal lead is its stability: Liaison reported exactly the same 43%-32%-13% Liberal-Conservative-NDP configuration one week earlier. That suggests the latest result is not simply the product of one unusually favourable batch of interviews.
The numbers also underline how different the current political landscape looks from the April 2025 federal election. Elections Canada recorded 43.8% of valid votes for the Liberals and 41.3% for the Conservatives in that contest. Comparing an election result directly with a poll requires caution, but the contrast illustrates where the Conservative problem currently lies. Liberal support in Liaison’s tracker is close to its 2025 election level, while Conservative support is substantially lower and the NDP has recovered from its 6.3% election result.
The Poll Used 1,526 Canadians Over a Two-Week Field Period
The tracker is based on a random sample of 1,526 Canadians interviewed between August 9 and August 22. Liaison used interactive voice response technology and random-digit dialling across cellular and landline networks, then weighted the results to demographic targets from the 2021 Census. For the total sample, Liaison reports a margin of error of plus or minus 2.51 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Those details matter because the headline numbers can appear more precise than public-opinion research actually is.
An 11-point Liberal advantage is considerably larger than the reported national margin of error, so the basic conclusion that the Liberals lead in this particular poll is stronger than any claim about whether support is precisely 43% rather than 42% or 44%. Subgroup results require even greater caution because they are based on fewer respondents. The poll is best understood as a snapshot of the political environment across its field period rather than an exact scoreboard. That distinction becomes especially important when a major international event erupts near the very end of interviewing.
Only One Day of Tracking Came After the Trade Talks Collapsed
The most consequential detail in Liaison’s release may not be the 11-point lead at all. Principal David Valentin emphasized that only one day of tracking occurred after Donald Trump’s latest escalation of the Canada-U.S. trade confrontation. With interviews running through August 22, almost the entire sample had already been collected when negotiations collapsed late on August 21. Canadians interviewed earlier in the field period were therefore responding to a dramatically different trade environment from the one confronting the country now.
That makes the result a predominantly pre-crisis measurement. Earlier in the week, Ottawa and Washington were still attempting to reach a deal, and the United States had temporarily delayed another round of tariffs while negotiations continued. By Friday night, that possibility had disappeared. Prime Minister Mark Carney ordered Canadian negotiators back to Ottawa after saying last-minute American demands were unfair and uneconomic. A voter answering a political questionnaire on August 15 had not experienced that breakdown; someone answering after August 21 had. Mixing those environments into one tracker naturally limits what can be concluded about the fallout.
The Trade Shock Became Much More Concrete on August 21 and 22
The failed negotiations quickly turned an abstract trade dispute into a more immediate economic confrontation. Carney said the United States intended to impose 50% tariffs on roughly C$28 billion worth of Canadian goods beginning at midnight after talks broke down. Reuters reported that the new duties covered about US$20 billion in Canadian exports. Ottawa responded by promising matching counter-tariffs, with Carney saying Canada would respond dollar for dollar rather than accept the new American terms.
Canada’s planned retaliation is expected to concentrate on areas including steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. Carney acknowledged that Canadian retaliation would carry domestic costs, including higher prices and reduced consumer choice. That creates a political test very different from negotiations conducted largely behind closed doors. A manufacturing worker worried about future shifts, a small exporter suddenly calculating a 50% tariff, and a household facing higher prices can interpret the same confrontation differently. Liaison’s tracker largely predates the moment when those consequences became immediate enough to influence political judgments.
Carney Enters the New Confrontation With a Strong Approval Cushion
One reason the Liberals begin this period from a relatively strong position is Carney’s personal approval rating. Liaison found 59% approving of the prime minister’s performance and 31% disapproving. Approval slipped only one point from the previous weekly tracker, when it reached 60%. For a governing leader confronting a potentially disruptive international dispute, that gives the Liberals political room that would not exist if the government were already deeply unpopular before the economic shock arrived.
The regional divide is considerable, however. Liaison reports that 76% of respondents in Quebec approve of Carney, while his weakest result is in Alberta, where 39% approve and 56% disapprove. Those differences reinforce the danger of treating the national figure as uniform sentiment. More importantly, the poll cannot establish whether Carney will gain or lose support from the collapsed negotiations because most respondents were interviewed beforehand. Valentin specifically identified that uncertainty: Canadians could rally behind the prime minister for resisting Trump, blame Ottawa if jobs and prices worsen, or take time before assigning responsibility. The current approval number is therefore better viewed as Carney’s starting position.
Poilievre’s Personal Ratings Remain a Major Conservative Constraint
Pierre Poilievre enters the same political moment from a substantially weaker position in Liaison’s leadership measures. His favourable rating stands at 34%, down one point from the previous tracker, while 54% view him unfavourably, up one point. The Conservative ballot number, meanwhile, remains unchanged at 32%. That combination suggests the party has yet to benefit meaningfully from any softening in Carney’s numbers or from broader economic uncertainty during the period captured by the poll.
For Conservatives, the trade conflict could nevertheless create an opening if public attention moves from national solidarity toward household finances, employment and dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of negotiations. But there is an equally obvious strategic risk. A confrontation with a U.S. president threatening Canadian industries can shift political debate toward questions of national leadership and who voters trust to deal with Washington. With Poilievre’s unfavourable rating substantially exceeding his favourable score, the Conservatives cannot assume deteriorating economic conditions automatically transfer support to them. The next phase may depend as much on perceptions of each leader’s handling of Trump as on the tariffs themselves.
Women and Older Canadians Are Providing Much of the Liberal Advantage
The national Liberal lead is built on particularly large advantages among women and older voters. Liaison finds the Liberals ahead 49% to 25% over the Conservatives among women. Among Canadians aged 65 and older, the Liberal advantage is even larger at 57% to 26%. Those groups provide the governing party with a formidable base even though the overall electorate is far less one-sided. For Conservatives looking to close an 11-point national deficit, improving among one or both of those groups would make a substantial difference.
The political consequences of the trade fight may also vary across demographics. Older Canadians may evaluate the dispute through retirement security, inflation and economic stability, while working-age households may focus more directly on layoffs, wages and the price of everyday goods. Those are analytical possibilities rather than outcomes already visible in this tracker. The key point is that Liberal strength is not evenly distributed. If the trade confrontation changes sentiment most sharply among groups currently giving the government overwhelming support, the national numbers could move quickly. If those voters instead rally around Ottawa, the Liberal advantage could become more resilient.
Younger Canadians Are Fighting a Very Different Three-Way Political Contest
Among Canadians aged 18 to 34, Liaison finds something close to a three-way race. The Liberals receive 30%, the Conservatives 29% and the NDP 26%. That is strikingly different from the overall national standings, where the Liberals lead the Conservatives by double digits and the NDP sits at 13%. Younger voters are therefore providing neither major party with anything resembling the dominant advantage the Liberals enjoy among seniors.
The NDP’s position is especially noteworthy. Liaison reports the party at 26% among younger voters and 22% in British Columbia. NDP leader Avi Lewis has a nearly even national image—31% favourable and 30% unfavourable—but performs considerably better among Canadians aged 18 to 34, where his favourability reaches 46%, and in British Columbia, where it reaches 44%. That means any political fallout from tariffs does not necessarily have to move directly between Liberals and Conservatives. If younger Canadians become more focused on affordability, job insecurity or economic inequality, the NDP has a demographic base from which it could compete for dissatisfied voters.
Other Pollsters Agree on a Liberal Lead, but Not on Its Exact Size
Liaison’s 11-point result should not be interpreted in isolation. Recent national polling from other firms has also placed the Liberals ahead, although estimates of the margin vary considerably. Abacus Data’s August 7-12 research put the Liberals at 42% and Conservatives at 35%, a seven-point advantage. Léger’s early-August federal polling showed the Liberals at 46% and Conservatives at 34%, a 12-point lead. A Nanos rolling poll ending August 14 put Liberal support at about 46% and Conservative support at roughly 29%.
The range matters. Different polling firms use different interviewing methods, weighting procedures, field periods and voter screens, so individual toplines should not be treated as interchangeable measurements. The more durable conclusion is that several recent polls independently showed the Liberals leading before the latest Canada-U.S. escalation. None of those earlier numbers, however, answers the question now becoming politically central: whether the collapse of negotiations strengthens Carney by producing a rally-around-the-government response or damages the Liberals once voters connect the trade conflict with employment, prices and economic uncertainty.
The Economic Stakes Are Large Enough to Change Political Behaviour
Canada’s exposure to the American economy helps explain why a trade dispute can become politically consequential quickly. Statistics Canada reported that 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025, even after that share fell from 75.9% the year before. The dependence is considerably greater in automobiles. Statistics Canada estimates that more than 93% of Canadian motor-vehicle exports went to the United States in 2025, while roughly 76% of payroll jobs in automobile and light-duty vehicle manufacturing in 2024 depended on U.S. demand—about 27,000 jobs.
Those pressures arrive when the Canadian economy already has limited room for another shock. In its July outlook, the Bank of Canada said GDP in the first quarter of 2026 was approximately unchanged from the first quarter of 2025 and described trade uncertainty and U.S. tariffs as important economic headwinds. The unemployment rate had generally been running between 6.5% and 7%. Political reaction could therefore depend less on diplomatic rhetoric than on whether tariffs begin translating into postponed investment, reduced shifts, higher costs or greater insecurity in trade-sensitive communities.
The Political Story Has Already Moved Beyond What This Poll Could Capture
There is another reason to treat the 11-point lead as a baseline rather than a verdict. On August 24—after Liaison’s fieldwork had already ended—Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian-made cars, trucks and auto parts to 50% beginning January 1, 2027. That threat directly targets one of Canada’s most integrated and economically sensitive industries and was completely absent from the responses used to produce the current tracker. Ottawa, meanwhile, is preparing additional measures to support workers and businesses affected by the escalating trade confrontation.
That leaves the next federal polling unusually important. A sustained Liberal lead would suggest the government is absorbing the confrontation without significant political damage and could even indicate that Carney’s handling of Washington is reinforcing support. A narrowing gap could suggest voters are beginning to attach economic anxiety to the government. Movement toward the NDP among younger Canadians would tell a different story again. For now, Liaison’s 43%-32% result establishes where the parties stood immediately before the trade fight intensified. It does not yet tell Canadians where the confrontation is taking them.
