Canada’s federal political landscape is shifting again, and the catalyst is increasingly coming from outside the country. New Abacus Data polling shows the Liberals opening a 10-point advantage over the Conservatives as anxiety surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump and the worsening Canada-U.S. trade confrontation moves sharply higher.
The Liberals now stand at 45% among committed voters, compared with 35% for the Conservatives, while Trump and his administration have become the second-most frequently identified major issue facing Canada. Cost of living still ranks first, but the renewed focus on Washington is changing the terrain on which the parties are competing. It is particularly important for Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose approval and personal ratings have improved at the same time that trade negotiations with the United States have broken down and new American tariffs have taken effect.
Liberals Move Back Into Double-Digit Territory
Abacus Data’s latest federal tracking puts Liberal support at 45% among committed voters, giving the governing party a 10-point advantage over the Conservatives at 35%. The NDP stands at 9%, the Bloc Québécois at 7%, the Greens at 2%, and the People’s Party at 1%. Compared with the previous Abacus wave completed August 12, Liberal support gained three percentage points while Conservative support remained unchanged.
That distinction matters. The widening gap is not primarily being driven by Conservative voters suddenly abandoning Pierre Poilievre. Instead, the Liberals appear to have consolidated additional support while the Conservative base held around the same level. Among respondents who said they were certain to vote, the picture was nearly identical: 46% Liberal and 36% Conservative. That suggests the Liberal advantage in this particular poll does not disappear when the sample is narrowed to people expressing the strongest intention to participate. It also restores the Liberals to the kind of double-digit lead Abacus recorded at several points earlier in 2026.
Trump Has Reclaimed the Political Agenda
The biggest change underneath those topline numbers concerns Donald Trump. Forty-five per cent of Canadians in the Abacus research selected Trump and his administration as one of the three most important issues facing the country, an increase of seven percentage points in only two weeks. That placed Trump clearly in second position nationally, behind cost of living but ahead of the economy, housing affordability and healthcare.
The timing offers an important explanation. Abacus conducted its interviews from August 21 through August 26, precisely as Canada-U.S. trade negotiations broke down and new U.S. tariffs became reality. Carney suspended negotiations on August 21 after saying the final American terms were unfair and economically unacceptable. The United States then imposed 50% tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods. Ottawa subsequently announced matching countermeasures on $27.6 billion worth of U.S. imports beginning September 8. Against that backdrop, Trump became less of a distant foreign-policy concern and more of an immediate question involving jobs, prices, factories and Canada’s economic sovereignty.
Cost of Living Still Sets the Ceiling
Trump may have surged into second place, but affordability has not disappeared. Abacus found 62% of Canadians identifying the rising cost of living as one of the country’s three most important issues, keeping it comfortably ahead of every other concern. The economy followed Trump at 39%, housing affordability stood at 30%, and healthcare was selected by 29%. Those numbers show why neither major party can afford to turn the federal debate entirely into a confrontation with Washington.
The economic backdrop reinforces that concern. Statistics Canada reported that the Consumer Price Index increased 3.0% year over year in July 2026, accelerating from 2.8% in June. Gasoline and travel-tour prices helped push headline inflation higher, while grocery prices were 3.1% above their level a year earlier. That creates a complicated environment for the government. A strong response to Trump can improve perceptions of leadership, but households still encounter politics through grocery bills, fuel pumps, housing payments and other routine expenses. Affordability therefore remains the issue most capable of disrupting an otherwise favourable Liberal political environment.
The Trump Issue Gives Liberals a Rare Ownership Advantage
The political significance of Trump’s rise is not simply that more Canadians are concerned about him. It is that the voters most concerned about Trump currently favour the Liberals by an unusually wide margin. Among respondents who placed Trump and his administration among their top three issues, 60% said they would vote Liberal, compared with only 21% who chose the Conservatives.
The gap becomes even more striking when voters are asked which party is best positioned to handle Trump. Among people prioritizing the issue, 62% selected the Liberals and just 18% picked the Conservatives. By comparison, perceptions of economic competence were evenly divided, with Liberals and Conservatives each receiving 40% when respondents focused on which party could best manage the economy. That means every increase in Trump’s prominence potentially shifts political debate toward terrain where Carney currently enjoys a major advantage. For the Conservatives, the challenge is therefore not simply persuading more voters to support them; it is keeping the campaign conversation focused on subjects where their own advantages are stronger.
Carney’s Approval Is Moving With the Crisis
Carney’s personal numbers have strengthened alongside the Liberal vote. Abacus found 53% of Canadians holding a positive impression of the prime minister and 28% holding a negative one, producing a net rating of plus 25. His net impression had been plus 20 two weeks earlier. Government approval also climbed four points to 56%, while disapproval fell to 29%, giving the government a net approval rating of plus 27.
Those numbers suggest that the trade confrontation is currently reinforcing rather than damaging perceptions of Carney’s leadership. His decision to suspend U.S. negotiations rather than accept Washington’s proposed terms came just as most of the Abacus interviews were being conducted. Ottawa has since announced dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs and billions of dollars in additional measures intended to cushion workers and businesses from the trade shock. Polling cannot prove that any single decision caused Carney’s approval increase, but the timing is politically notable. The prime minister is receiving stronger evaluations while the U.S. relationship occupies more attention, creating a leadership environment markedly different from one dominated purely by domestic affordability pressures.
Poilievre Still Owns Some Conservative-Friendly Issues
The 10-point Liberal advantage does not mean the Conservatives have lost their strongest political openings. Abacus found the Conservative Party with especially large advantages among Canadians who identify immigration or crime and public safety as major concerns. Among voters prioritizing immigration, 62% said the Conservatives were best able to handle it, compared with 15% for the Liberals. On crime and public safety, Conservatives led 59% to 17%.
They also retain a narrower advantage on the cost of living, where 35% of those prioritizing the issue viewed the Conservatives as best positioned to respond, compared with 31% for the Liberals. That provides Poilievre with an obvious incentive to redirect national debate toward household pressures, immigration and public safety. His personal ratings remain a constraint, however. Abacus measured positive impressions of Poilievre at 35% and negative impressions at 46%, producing a net rating of minus 11. The political contest is therefore partly a battle over agenda-setting: the Conservatives perform much better when Canadians are thinking about their strongest domestic issues than when Trump dominates attention.
Quebec Is the Most Dramatic Shift
Nowhere is the relationship between Trump anxiety and Liberal support more visible than Quebec. Two weeks earlier, Abacus had the Liberals at 37% in the province, only two points ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 35%. The newest results put the Liberals at 45% and the Bloc at 34%, rebuilding an 11-point Liberal advantage. Conservative support in Quebec was measured at just 16%.
At the same time, 63% of Quebec respondents identified Trump and his administration as one of their three biggest concerns, up from 52% two weeks earlier. It was the only region where Trump outranked cost of living, which stood at 53%. Carney’s net personal rating in Quebec reached plus 46, his strongest regional result. The province also has direct economic exposure to the trade confrontation through manufacturing and tariff-sensitive industries, making Washington’s actions more than an abstract diplomatic story. The combination of economic vulnerability, questions about sovereignty and an unpopular American president appears to have created particularly fertile political territory for Carney’s federalist message.
The Coalition Map Shows Where the Race Is Uneven
The national 45%-to-35% result conceals large differences across Canada. Abacus measured the Liberals at 49% in Ontario compared with 36% for the Conservatives, while Atlantic Canada produced an even larger Liberal advantage of 58% to 32%. In British Columbia, the Liberals stood at 45% and the Conservatives at 37%. The Conservatives remained overwhelmingly dominant in Alberta, leading 61% to 26%, and also led across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 48% to 36%.
Age differences are similarly important. Among Canadians 60 and older, the Liberals led 56% to 30%. Conservatives performed best among those aged 30 to 44, where they led 40% to 34%. The youngest respondents were almost evenly divided, with Liberals at 37% and Conservatives at 36%, while the NDP drew 17% among adults aged 18 to 29. Those splits illustrate why the national race cannot be understood through one simple left-right shift. The two leading parties continue to rely on substantially different regional and generational coalitions.
The Polling Picture Is Broader Than One Abacus Wave
Abacus is not the only recent research showing the Liberals ahead, although the size of the advantage varies considerably between pollsters. An August 30 compilation from 338Canada listed recent national polls showing Liberal leads ranging from roughly 10 points in the newest Abacus research to larger advantages in several Nanos Research, Liaison Strategies, Léger and Research Co. releases. That broader picture makes the existence of a Liberal lead less dependent on one individual poll, while still leaving uncertainty over its exact magnitude.
The methodology of the Abacus study also matters. The company surveyed 2,022 Canadian adults online between August 21 and August 26 and weighted the results to census benchmarks including age, gender, education and region. Abacus states that a comparable probability-based random sample of that size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. As with any individual public-opinion measurement, the result is best treated as a snapshot of political conditions during a particularly turbulent week rather than a prediction of a future election result.
Three Byelections Offer an Immediate Reality Check
The timing gives the numbers unusual political relevance. The Abacus findings were released one day before federal byelections scheduled for August 31 in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Quebec; Beaches–East York, Ontario; and North Vancouver–Capilano, British Columbia. Those contests span three provinces where the Liberals currently show varying degrees of strength in the national polling, while Chicoutimi–Le Fjord arrives just as Quebec emerges as the region most intensely focused on Trump.
Individual byelections cannot validate or disprove a national poll. Local candidates, turnout, riding histories and campaign organization can matter far more than national vote intention, especially when only three constituencies are voting. They can, however, provide the first real-world indication of whether the political energy visible in recent polling translates into ballots. More broadly, the central question is whether Trump remains near the top of Canadians’ concerns. If the U.S. confrontation stays dominant, the current numbers suggest the Liberals have a significant advantage. If affordability, immigration or public safety regain more of the agenda, the Conservatives have much stronger ground on which to fight.
