Ontario voters are casting ballots in three provincial byelections today, but the political stakes extend far beyond the boundaries of Hamilton, Scarborough and York Region. Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are defending two seats just as the escalating Canada–U.S. trade conflict has pushed economic security back to the centre of provincial politics.
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, Scarborough Southwest and York—Simcoe are all voting on September 3, with polls open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. The Ford government’s large legislative majority is not in danger, yet the results offer an unusually timely test of whether the premier’s increasingly confrontational response to U.S. President Donald Trump is resonating with voters. For candidates knocking on doors, tariffs are now competing with affordability, health care and education as immediate ballot-box concerns.
Ford’s Conservatives Are Defending Two of the Three Vacant Seats
Three Ontario ridings are voting, but the Progressive Conservatives have the most to defend. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek became vacant after former cabinet minister Neil Lumsden retired, while York—Simcoe opened following the resignation of Caroline Mulroney. Both had been represented by Progressive Conservatives. Scarborough Southwest, meanwhile, had been held by the NDP’s Doly Begum before she resigned from Queen’s Park to enter federal politics.
The contests will not threaten Ford’s ability to govern. Before the byelections, the Legislative Assembly listed 77 Progressive Conservatives, 26 New Democrats, 14 Liberals, two Greens, two independents and three vacancies in the 124-seat legislature. That leaves the PCs comfortably above the threshold needed for a majority regardless of what happens tonight. Politically, however, losing a seat—particularly in Hamilton—would matter. Ford won a third majority government in February 2025, so the byelections provide a midterm reading of how parts of Ontario are responding to his government more than a year later.
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Is the Race Most Likely to Test Ford
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is shaping up as the most unpredictable of the three contests. The Progressive Conservatives are running Hamilton councillor Jeff Beattie, while the NDP has recruited Monique Taylor, a former four-term MPP from neighbouring Hamilton Mountain. The Liberals are again running Heino Doessing, who finished second in the riding during Ontario’s 2025 election. All three have plausible arguments for why the seat could move their way.
The numbers explain the uncertainty. Lumsden won the 2025 election with 16,401 votes, or about 42.1 per cent. Doessing received 12,323 votes, or roughly 31.6 per cent, while the NDP candidate collected 6,862 votes. Taylor gives the NDP a considerably more recognizable candidate this time, while Beattie inherits a seat the Conservatives have held only since 2022. Hamilton also had more than 31,000 people in its labour force working in manufacturing industries in the 2021 census, making tariff threats far more than an abstract diplomatic dispute for many local households.
Tariffs Carry Extra Weight in a Steel and Manufacturing City
For workers in Hamilton, the Canada–U.S. dispute reaches directly into an economy built around manufacturing, steel, transportation and the businesses supporting those industries. Candidates told Canadian Press reporters that tariff concerns repeatedly surfaced during campaigning. Taylor, in particular, has emphasized the potential consequences for families in a city where industrial jobs and their suppliers remain an important part of the local economy.
Those anxieties intensified after Washington imposed new Section 338 tariffs of 50 per cent on C$27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods beginning August 22. Ontario responded days later by widening eligibility for its Protect Ontario Financing Program to companies affected by the new measures, as well as businesses already exposed to U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper and automotive products. The province has separately estimated that roughly 285,000 Ontario jobs—about 3.5 per cent of provincial employment—are linked to exports to the United States. In Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, that economic exposure gives an international trade dispute unusually local consequences.
Scarborough Southwest Has Become an NDP-Liberal Test
Scarborough Southwest presents a very different political problem. The riding had been a dependable NDP seat under Doly Begum, who won provincially in 2018, 2022 and 2025. She captured 42.9 per cent of the vote in the 2025 provincial election, compared with 30.7 per cent for the PCs and 22.9 per cent for the Liberals. Her departure created an opening that both the NDP and Liberals now believe they can claim.
Fatima Shaban is attempting to keep the riding for the New Democrats, while businessman Ahsanul Hafiz is running for the Liberals. Hafiz owns a group of 30 Domino’s Pizza locations and secured his nomination after an exceptionally close contest in which he defeated former federal MP Nate Erskine-Smith by 19 votes. The PCs are represented by Noor Tarun. The race is especially intriguing because Begum herself switched arenas successfully: after leaving Queen’s Park, she won the federal Scarborough Southwest byelection in April with 69.6 per cent of the vote. That demonstrated considerable federal Liberal strength in precisely the territory the provincial party now wants to capture.
York—Simcoe Remains the Safest Conservative Defence
If Hamilton is the nervous Conservative campaign and Scarborough Southwest is the opposition battleground, York—Simcoe is the seat where the PCs begin with the strongest historical advantage. Caroline Mulroney represented the riding from 2018 until her resignation, continuing a long period of Progressive Conservative control. In the 2025 provincial election, she received 24,705 votes, representing 59.4 per cent of ballots cast and beating the Liberal runner-up by more than 14,700 votes.
The PCs have chosen East Gwillimbury councillor Susan Lahey to succeed her. Liberal candidate Naomi Davison and NDP candidate Bobby Nikmard are among those attempting to upset a pattern that has survived multiple electoral cycles. York—Simcoe itself is geographically different from the two urban contests: the riding spans about 1,100 square kilometres and includes Bradford West Gwillimbury, East Gwillimbury, Georgina and part of King Township. A Conservative loss there would therefore represent a much larger political shock than a defeat in Hamilton. Holding it comfortably would largely confirm the riding’s long-established partisan character.
Trump Has Given Ford a Political Issue That Plays to His Strengths
Only a few months ago, Ford was dealing with some of the weakest personal numbers of his premiership. An Angus Reid Institute poll released in June put his approval at just 21 per cent. By late July, another poll from Liaison Strategies showed the Liberals leading provincially and Ford’s approval at 24 per cent. The renewed confrontation with Trump appears to have changed the political environment, at least temporarily.
Liaison’s August 23–24 Ontario poll put the PCs back ahead with 39 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, compared with 35 per cent for the Liberals and 20 per cent for the NDP. Ford’s approval had climbed to 36 per cent, although 61 per cent still disapproved of his performance. The trade response itself attracted broader support: 83 per cent backed matching new U.S. tariffs dollar-for-dollar, 85 per cent supported keeping American alcohol out of LCBO stores and 72 per cent favoured an additional charge on Ontario electricity exports to the United States. Those numbers help explain Ford’s increasingly combative tone.
Even the Lake Ontario Fight Has Entered the Campaign Atmosphere
The dispute has moved well beyond customs schedules and factory spreadsheets. Trump’s August 27 executive order directing U.S. federal agencies to call Lake Ontario “Lake America” generated another burst of anger in Canada. The order does not change the lake’s internationally recognized or Canadian name, but it gave Ford a highly visible opportunity to position himself as one of Trump’s most aggressive provincial critics.
Two days later, Ford appeared at Fifty Point Conservation Area near Hamilton and unveiled a large sign declaring “Lake Ontario. Now and Always.” He said Canada would not back down from a bully. The spectacle was unconventional provincial politics, but its timing placed Ford’s Trump confrontation directly beside one of the ridings voting this week. Candidates subsequently reported that both the latest tariffs and the lake-name dispute were being discussed by voters. The political calculation is straightforward: every exchange that turns the U.S. president into Ford’s opponent can temporarily shift attention away from provincial controversies and toward the premier’s preferred role as Ontario’s defender.
Carney’s Federal Liberals Are Creating Their Own Coattail Effect
Ford is not the only Canadian politician potentially benefiting from confrontation with Trump. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals swept three federal byelections on August 31, winning in Beaches—East York, North Vancouver—Capilano and Chicoutimi—Le Fjord. The Quebec result was particularly notable because the Liberals captured a seat previously held by the Conservatives amid intense debate over Canada’s response to U.S. pressure.
That federal momentum matters in today’s provincial races even though voters regularly distinguish between federal and provincial parties. Liberal candidates in Ontario have openly argued that Carney’s popularity and the federal party’s stance against Trump could help them. Liaison’s national tracker released August 31 placed the federal Liberals at 46 per cent among decided and leaning voters, compared with 29 per cent for the Conservatives; much of its interviewing occurred after the latest trade escalation. Scarborough Southwest offers perhaps the clearest test of those coattails, while Hamilton’s three-way race will show whether federal Liberal strength can translate into provincial gains against both PCs and New Democrats.
Voters Are Still Talking About Health Care, Schools and Affordability
The Trump dispute may dominate headlines, but candidates say traditional provincial concerns have never disappeared from doorstep conversations. Affordability, education and strained health-care services remain prominent. Those issues matter because they return the election to areas where a provincial government has far more direct control than it does over U.S. trade policy. For opposition candidates, keeping those concerns visible is essential to preventing the campaign from becoming a referendum solely on who appears toughest toward Washington.
That tension creates an unusual choice for voters. A resident worried about a tariff-exposed job may appreciate Ford’s willingness to confront Trump while simultaneously being dissatisfied with local health-care access, household expenses or conditions in schools. Liaison’s August poll captured that contradiction: while Ford’s approval rebounded, only 27 per cent of respondents said Ontario was heading in the right direction, with 72 per cent saying it was on the wrong track. Today’s results may therefore reveal whether trade anxiety is actually overriding domestic frustration—or merely existing alongside it.
Fresh Trade Numbers Show Why the Economic Anxiety Is Not Going Away
Statistics Canada released new merchandise-trade figures on the morning of the byelections, adding another layer of economic context. Canadian goods exports fell 2.3 per cent in July to C$76.1 billion, while imports increased 2.2 per cent. The country’s merchandise trade surplus consequently narrowed from C$4.2 billion in June to C$769 million. Exports specifically to the United States dropped 6.6 per cent, the steepest percentage decline since April 2025, while Canada’s bilateral goods surplus with the U.S. fell from C$10.3 billion to C$5.9 billion.
Those figures need to be interpreted carefully because July predates the latest 50 per cent U.S. tariffs imposed on August 22. They therefore do not measure the effect of the newest escalation. Still, they underline the scale of Canada’s economic relationship with its southern neighbour at the exact moment Ontario voters are considering how governments should respond. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on C$27.6 billion worth of U.S. products are scheduled to take effect September 8, meaning the economic contest will continue long after today’s ballots are counted.
The immediate question tonight is not whether Doug Ford will remain premier; his majority is secure. Instead, the three results will provide a much more targeted political verdict. Holding Hamilton East—Stoney Creek and York—Simcoe would allow the PCs to argue that Ford’s anti-Trump posture is helping rebuild support after a difficult summer. Losing Hamilton would suggest that economic anxiety does not automatically translate into support for the government managing the response.
Scarborough Southwest carries a different message. An NDP hold would demonstrate that established local organization can withstand a surging federal Liberal brand, while a Liberal pickup would strengthen arguments that Carney-era momentum is beginning to reshape Ontario politics. In all three ridings, however, one feature of the campaign is already unmistakable: a trade fight originating in Washington has reached neighbourhood doorsteps in Ontario, turning what might normally have been low-profile byelections into a small but revealing test of the province’s political mood.
