The price of groceries, housing and everyday necessities is weighing heavily on Canadians, yet growing frustration over household expenses has not translated into stronger national support for the Conservatives.
New polling released by Abacus Data on October 14, 2026, finds that 64% of Canadians identify the rising cost of living as one of the country’s three most important issues. Meanwhile, the share selecting Donald Trump and his administration has fallen to 40%, down from 46% in early September.
Despite that shift toward domestic concerns, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals maintain a commanding 46% to 34% lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives among committed voters.
The findings reveal a complicated political landscape: Canadians increasingly want relief from financial pressures, but the governing Liberals continue to hold a substantial advantage in voting intentions.
Liberals Maintain a 12-Point Lead Despite Economic Frustration
The latest Abacus Data poll reveals remarkable stability in federal voting intentions. Among Canadians who have decided which party they would support, 46% favour the Liberals and 34% support the Conservatives, leaving a 12-percentage-point gap. Both parties are unchanged from the company’s September 23 findings. The New Democratic Party remains at 9%, the Bloc Québécois at 7%, and the Greens at 3%. For an opposition party hoping that financial pressure will erode government support, the absence of movement is an important challenge.
The Liberal advantage also survives when researchers examine respondents who say they are certain to vote. In that group, the governing party receives 47% support against 35% for the Conservatives, again producing a 12-point difference. These numbers suggest the national gap is not simply explained by more enthusiastic Conservative voters being overlooked in the overall figures. However, voting intentions are not election results. Economic conditions, political developments and the geographic distribution of support can all affect what ultimately happens when Canadians cast their ballots.
Cost of Living Remains the Biggest Concern Across Canada
Almost two-thirds of respondents, 64%, selected the rising cost of living among Canada’s three most important problems, an increase of one percentage point since September 23. That places affordability well ahead of the economy more broadly at 37%, healthcare at 33% and housing affordability at 32%. The distinction matters: respondents were identifying national priorities, not necessarily reporting their personal financial circumstances. Nevertheless, the result captures the prominence of household expenses in Canadian political discussions.
Official statistics help explain the continuing pressure. Statistics Canada reported that consumer prices increased 3.0% year over year in August 2026, while grocery prices rose 2.8% and transportation prices climbed 7.5%. Inflation slowing in one category does not mean families are paying less than they did several years earlier. As the Bank of Canada explains, lower inflation generally means prices are rising more slowly, rather than returning to previous levels. For households balancing food bills, utility payments and transportation expenses, that difference is significant. Political promises about economic improvement must eventually translate into purchasing power people can recognize.
Concern About Donald Trump Falls, but Remains a Major Issue
Donald Trump and his administration continue to occupy an unusually prominent place in Canadian political thinking, although their relative importance is declining. In early September, 46% of Canadians selected the U.S. administration among their three leading national concerns. That figure slipped to 44% on September 23 and now stands at 40%. The six-point decline over approximately one month is notable, particularly during a period of continued uncertainty surrounding Canada–U.S. economic relations.
The movement should not be mistaken for a disappearance of concern about Washington. Four in ten respondents still include Trump among Canada’s most important challenges, making the issue second only to the rising cost of living. It also remains ahead of healthcare, housing and immigration. The poll measures how prominently Canadians rank the issue, not whether they approve of Trump or how favourably they view Americans. For the Liberals, a reduced focus on Trump could alter the political conversation because the party enjoys a particularly strong reputation for handling relations with his administration. For the Conservatives, the opportunity is to connect domestic financial frustration with a convincing alternative economic program.
Quebec Shows One of the Biggest Changes in Political Priorities
Quebec provides a particularly striking example of how Canadian concerns are shifting. In Abacus Data’s September 23 findings, 59% of Quebec respondents identified Trump and his administration as a major issue, compared with 56% who selected the cost of living. Three weeks later, those positions have reversed. Concern about Trump has fallen ten points to 49%, while the proportion selecting rising living costs has increased five points to 61%. Affordability now leads by 12 percentage points.
The political implications are especially interesting because Quebec remains an important source of Liberal support. The latest federal voting figures put the Liberals at 44% in the province, ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 31% and the Conservatives at 18%. Although Quebecers remain more likely than the national average to identify Trump as a significant concern, domestic financial issues have moved ahead. That creates competing opportunities: the Liberals can emphasize their record of managing international uncertainty, while rival parties can challenge whether federal economic policies are improving the everyday circumstances of Quebec households. The change in issue rankings does not, by itself, establish that voters are switching parties.
Conservatives Hold a Narrow Advantage on Handling Living Costs
One of the most revealing findings concerns which political party Canadians trust to address their priorities. Among respondents who selected the rising cost of living as a top-three issue, 35% believe the Conservatives would manage it best, compared with 33% who prefer the Liberals. The two-point difference is modest, but it shows the governing party does not automatically lead on the issue that dominates public attention. The NDP receives 10% on the same measure, while 17% are unsure.
The picture changes considerably when other issues are considered. Among those identifying Trump as a leading concern, 64% favour the Liberals as the party best equipped to respond, against just 13% for the Conservatives. The Liberals also lead on housing affordability, 35% to 26%, and narrowly on the economy, 44% to 41%. Conservatives have much larger advantages on immigration, 61% to 11%, and crime and public safety, 59% to 18%. These results help explain why widespread affordability frustration has not produced a Conservative national lead. Canadians appear to evaluate political competence differently depending on the problem, and the responses reflect only those who prioritized each issue.
Housing and Employment Pressures Add to the Affordability Debate
Housing is becoming a more prominent part of the national conversation. The proportion of Canadians identifying housing affordability and accessibility as a top-three issue increased from 27% on September 23 to 32% in October. That five-point movement is meaningful in a country where aspiring homeowners must navigate mortgage qualification, down payments and housing availability. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s September 2026 estimates reinforce the scale of the challenge: housing construction would need to reach approximately 417,000 to 469,000 homes annually to restore pre-pandemic affordability by 2036.
Employment conditions provide another reason financial security remains politically sensitive. Statistics Canada’s September Labour Force Survey reported that employment declined by 68,000 positions during the month, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.5%. Young workers aged 15 to 24 experienced a particularly large employment decline of 48,000. Average hourly wages increased 2.3% from a year earlier, but individual households experience wages, prices and employment opportunities differently. For a renter trying to save for a home or a recent graduate searching for stable work, affordability involves more than inflation alone. It also depends on reliable income and access to housing.
Regional Differences Reveal a Divided Political Landscape
The national Liberal advantage conceals substantial differences across provinces. Ontario remains a major Liberal strength, with the governing party leading the Conservatives by 50% to 35%. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals receive 54% against 35% for the Conservatives. British Columbia is more competitive, with the Liberals at 42%, Conservatives at 37% and NDP at 14%. These variations matter because Canadian federal elections are decided riding by riding rather than through a single national vote.
Western Canada presents a different picture. Alberta remains strongly Conservative, with the party at 52% compared with 37% for the Liberals. Saskatchewan and Manitoba are much closer, at 42% Conservative and 41% Liberal. Yet concerns about living costs cross these political boundaries. In Alberta, 69% of respondents identified affordability as a leading issue, compared with 67% in Atlantic Canada, 66% in British Columbia and 63% in Ontario. The cost of living ranks first in every region covered by the poll. That makes affordability a genuinely national concern even though Canadians disagree considerably about which party should govern.
Younger and Older Canadians Have Different Political Preferences
Age remains a significant dividing line in federal voting preferences. Among Canadians aged 60 and older, the Liberals hold a substantial 55% to 30% advantage over the Conservatives. The gap narrows sharply among adults aged 30 to 44, where Liberal support stands at 39% and Conservative support at 38%. This near tie is especially relevant because people in this age group may be managing mortgages, childcare costs or the financial demands of raising families while building their careers.
Younger Canadians show a more fragmented political picture. Among respondents aged 18 to 29, the Liberals receive 39%, the Conservatives 32% and the NDP 17%, substantially above the NDP’s national average of 9%. Education also correlates with voting preferences. The Liberals lead 52% to 30% among university graduates, while respondents with a high school education or less are nearly evenly divided, at 40% Liberal and 39% Conservative. These demographic patterns do not establish why individuals choose a particular party, but they demonstrate why broad national averages cannot fully capture the different economic circumstances and political priorities of Canadian voters.
Carney’s Government Remains Popular, but Approval Has Softened
Although Liberal voting intentions remain unchanged, public evaluations of the federal government have weakened slightly. Abacus Data reports that 57% of Canadians approve of the government’s performance, down from 60% on September 23. Disapproval has increased from 25% to 29%, while 14% neither approve nor disapprove. The government therefore retains majority approval, but its previously improving ratings have moved in the opposite direction during the latest polling period.
Mark Carney’s personal standing remains stronger than that of his principal political opponents. Fifty-five percent of respondents have a positive impression of the Prime Minister, while 29% hold a negative impression, producing a net positive rating of 26 points. That represents a decline from his previous net rating of plus 31. Pierre Poilievre receives positive impressions from 37% and negative impressions from 44%, with Abacus reporting a net rating of minus eight after accounting for unrounded results. The distinction between government approval, leadership impressions and voting intention is important. Canadians can become less satisfied with government performance without immediately changing which party they intend to support.
The Poll Shows Stability Today, but Important Questions Remain
The latest findings suggest Canadians are reassessing their national priorities faster than they are changing political allegiances. Forty-seven percent believe Canada is heading in the right direction, while 42% think it is on the wrong track. Those numbers have moved slightly against the government since September. Nevertheless, Canadians remain much more optimistic about their own country’s direction than the wider international environment: only 15% believe the world is moving in the right direction, and just 13% say the same about the United States.
The findings are based on an online poll of 3,197 Canadian adults conducted October 2–13, 2026. Abacus Data weighted responses to reflect national demographics, although its opt-in panel methodology means a conventional probability-sampling margin of error cannot be directly calculated. The firm’s stated 1.7-point figure applies to a hypothetical probability sample of comparable size. Undecided respondents were excluded from reported party preferences, and individual regional results carry additional uncertainty. The central political message remains clear: household affordability dominates public priorities, Trump’s relative importance is easing, and the Liberals still lead comfortably. Whether that balance holds will depend on how Canadians judge the government’s economic performance in the months ahead.
