American winemakers are discovering that repairing a damaged trade relationship may be harder than removing the tariffs that caused the trouble.
California Democratic Senator Adam Schiff warned on October 15, 2026, that President Donald Trump’s trade war has left Canadian consumers increasingly reluctant to purchase American products, threatening one of the U.S. wine industry’s most valuable export markets.
After visiting Alberta and Ottawa, Schiff described Canadian retailers steering shoppers toward alternatives even where American wine remains available. His concern comes as industry figures show U.S. wine exports to Canada fell 78% in 2025, wiping hundreds of millions of dollars from sales.
With provincial alcohol restrictions continuing, consumer boycotts gaining support and Washington escalating trade measures, the dispute has become about more than wine. It is testing whether American producers can regain the trust of Canadian customers after months of political confrontation.
Senator Adam Schiff Warns Canadian Resentment Could Outlast Trump’s Trade War
California Senator Adam Schiff believes the economic damage from Trump’s trade policies will not disappear simply because the two countries eventually reach an agreement. Speaking during a press call reported by Agri-Pulse on October 15, Schiff warned that deteriorating Canadian attitudes toward the United States were hurting California’s wine industry. “Canadians may love our wine, but they don’t love America at the moment,” he said, pointing to a broader loss of goodwill that could continue long after the current trade confrontation ends.
Schiff’s comments followed a visit to Alberta and Ottawa the previous week, where he examined how trade tensions were affecting American agricultural producers. His concerns extend beyond the immediate loss of orders. California wineries have spent years developing Canadian customer relationships, distribution arrangements and brand recognition. Rebuilding those connections could become difficult if buyers establish new purchasing habits. Schiff is a Democratic critic of Trump’s tariff strategy, and his assessment reflects that political position. Nevertheless, the industry’s reported export losses demonstrate that the commercial disruption is substantial.
Alberta Liquor Stores Are Promoting Alternatives Even Though American Wine Remains Available
Alberta offered Schiff an unexpected example of how political tensions can influence shopping decisions without a formal government boycott. Unlike most Canadian provinces, Alberta continues allowing American wine, beer and spirits to be sold through its liquor retailers. Yet Schiff reported encountering signs that directed customers toward alternatives to American products. The situation suggested that retailers were responding to consumer preferences rather than simply following provincial restrictions.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith reaffirmed in July that her government would not respond to Washington’s latest tariff threats by removing American alcohol from stores. She argued that individual retailers and customers should decide what products to stock and purchase. That policy has preserved access to American brands, but it cannot guarantee that shoppers will choose them. A customer walking into an Alberta liquor store might find California Cabernet Sauvignon alongside comparable wines from British Columbia, Ontario, Italy or France. The availability of competing products makes switching relatively straightforward. Schiff’s account illustrates how a shift in consumer sentiment can affect sales even when government policy leaves American products on the shelves.
Provincial Alcohol Boycotts Have Kept American Brands Out of Major Canadian Markets
Canada’s alcohol boycott began in March 2025, when provincial governments responded to American tariffs by removing U.S. beer, wine and spirits from publicly controlled liquor-store systems. Ontario’s Liquor Control Board stopped purchasing American products on March 4, cancelling orders where possible and removing thousands of American beverages from its retail and wholesale channels. Before the restrictions, the LCBO reported annual sales of up to C$965 million in American alcohol across its operations, with more than 3,600 products originating from 35 U.S. states.
Provincial policies have since developed differently. Alberta resumed American alcohol sales, while Saskatchewan allows them but introduced a 50% levy on new U.S.-origin alcohol imports beginning September 8, 2026. Quebec continues restricting new American purchases, with a narrow exception for certain existing inventories. These differences matter because Canada’s federal government does not independently control every provincial liquor retailer. Ottawa can negotiate international trade agreements, but provincial governments have substantial authority over alcohol distribution. For American wineries, that creates a complicated market in which access depends heavily on individual provincial decisions.
American Wine Exports to Canada Plunged 78%, Wiping Out US$357 Million in Sales
The financial impact is substantial. According to the Wine Institute, American wine exports to Canada fell from approximately US$460 million in 2024 to US$103 million in 2025, representing a 78% decline. That US$357-million reduction was the industry’s largest single-year disruption in its modern Canadian export history. Before the boycott, Canada accounted for roughly 36% of American wine exports by value, making it a particularly important destination for producers seeking customers beyond the domestic market.
The consequences extended across the American wine industry. Total U.S. wine exports worldwide fell approximately 35% in 2025, with the Canadian market accounting for an estimated 81% of the global decline in export value. The Wine Institute also reported that America’s longstanding wine trade surplus with Canada shifted from US$254 million in 2024 to a US$90-million deficit in 2025. These figures measure export trade, not the retail prices consumers pay or the full economic losses experienced by individual wineries. Nevertheless, they explain why Schiff and industry representatives consider Canada’s restrictions a serious commercial threat. The figures describe full-year 2025 results and should not be mistaken for confirmed 2026 totals.
Schiff Previously Asked Quebec to Reopen Its Market to California Wine
Schiff’s latest warning follows an earlier attempt to persuade Canadian leaders to restore access for American producers. In a letter to Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette, publicized by his office on July 6, the senator urged the province to reconsider restrictions on California and other American wines. He acknowledged the damage caused by Trump’s tariff policies while arguing that wineries should not be punished for decisions made in Washington. As a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, Schiff framed the problem around farmers, local businesses and workers whose livelihoods depend on selling their products.
Quebec has maintained a firm position, although its liquor authority introduced a limited exception in February 2026. The Société des alcools du Québec, or SAQ, was authorized to sell selected American products from existing inventory if their quality could deteriorate by March 2027. The products were offered at a 15% discount, with an amount equivalent to their purchase cost, potentially reaching C$8.6 million, directed to Food Banks of Quebec. Crucially, this clearance program did not reopen ordinary American alcohol imports. For Schiff, the distinction demonstrates the difficulty of persuading provincial governments to reverse policies closely associated with Canada’s response to American tariffs.
Canadian Polling Suggests the Boycott Has Become More Than a Government Policy
Consumer opinion helps explain why political leaders have been reluctant to restore American alcohol sales. An Abacus Data poll released on August 6 found that 69% of respondents in British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Atlantic Canada supported maintaining provincial restrictions. Only 19% wanted American alcohol returned to stores, while 11% were undecided. Support reached 72% in British Columbia and 69% in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Those findings reflect the provinces included in the research rather than every Canadian jurisdiction.
Other polling suggests the resistance extends beyond government-imposed restrictions. A July Angus Reid Institute poll found that 60% of Canadians expected to avoid American wine, beer and spirits even if Canada and the United States reached a trade agreement. More recent Abacus Data findings, published October 1, showed 77% of Canadians intended either to avoid American products entirely or purchase as few as possible. These are measures of stated attitudes and intentions, not precise forecasts of future wine sales. However, they support Schiff’s central concern: reopening provincial markets may not be enough to restore American products to their previous position in Canadian shopping baskets.
Canadian and European Wineries Are Gaining Opportunities, but the Benefits Are Uneven
American wine’s retreat has created opportunities for domestic producers, particularly through Ontario’s government-controlled retail system. Wine Growers Ontario reported that sales of Ontario VQA wine through the LCBO surpassed C$264 million during the 12 months ending March 31, 2026, representing an increase of 43.7%. These wines are made entirely from Ontario-grown grapes. Yet the industry’s broader performance was less dramatic. Overall Ontario wine sales increased 4.8% in value and only 0.9% in volume, while sales through winery-owned retail locations declined significantly.
British Columbia offers an even more complicated picture. Despite the removal of American products from government liquor stores, local wineries did not experience a comparable surge in sales. Provincial wholesale figures for the first quarter of 2026 showed French wine purchases increasing approximately 23.9% in value, while New Zealand and Argentine wines also recorded double-digit growth. Local producers faced pressure from economic uncertainty and price-conscious consumers. These developments demonstrate that avoiding American wine does not automatically mean buying Canadian. Shoppers may instead discover European, South American or other international products, potentially creating new competition for American wineries if access is eventually restored.
A California Wine Company’s Financial Filing Shows How Quickly Trade Can Disappear
The disruption is visible in the financial disclosures of American wine businesses. Crimson Wine Group, a publicly traded producer with California wine operations, reported in its June 2026 quarterly filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that shipments to Canada had been suspended from the end of the first quarter through the second quarter of 2025. Some export activity gradually resumed in selected Canadian markets during the second half of that year. However, the company acknowledged that it could not predict when trade tensions would ease or whether Canadian demand would recover to its previous level.
For a wine producer, losing access to a familiar market involves more than replacing a single shipment. Distribution relationships, inventory planning, promotional spending and customer preferences are interconnected. A winery may have already produced and packaged bottles for Canadian distributors before purchase restrictions interrupt deliveries. The business must then decide whether to redirect inventory, accept additional costs or wait for conditions to improve. Crimson’s disclosure does not establish that every American winery experienced identical difficulties, but it provides a concrete example of why interrupted sales can have lingering consequences. The longer the restrictions continue, the more difficult it may become for producers to rebuild their former distribution networks.
Trump’s Response Has Escalated the Dispute Into a Two-Way Alcohol Trade Conflict
The White House has taken an increasingly aggressive position against Canada’s provincial alcohol restrictions. On July 20, Trump issued a proclamation accusing Canada of discriminating against American alcoholic beverages and authorizing additional 50% duties on designated Canadian imports. After negotiations failed in August, those tariffs took effect on August 22. Washington argued that Canadian provinces were unfairly restricting American producers while allowing competing products from other countries to remain available for sale.
The confrontation intensified again in September. A subsequent presidential proclamation barred specified Canadian alcoholic beverages from entering the United States beginning September 29. U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed that the restrictions applied to designated products, including certain packaged wines, beers and spirits, rather than every Canadian alcoholic beverage without exception. American trade associations also criticized the import ban. Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America and American Beverage Licensees warned that it could disrupt supply chains, reduce customer choice and hurt American businesses. Their opposition highlights an important contradiction: policies intended to pressure Canada into restoring access for American producers can create additional costs for American importers, retailers and hospitality operators. Instead of resolving the wine dispute, escalating restrictions have complicated trade in both directions.
Restoring American Wine Sales May Require More Than a New Trade Agreement
Schiff’s warning presents a difficult challenge for policymakers on both sides of the border. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has maintained that American alcohol will not return to LCBO shelves without meaningful progress on tariffs and a broader trade agreement. Meanwhile, Schiff has argued that California wine producers should not bear the consequences of federal trade decisions they did not make. During his October press call, he also outlined plans for congressional oversight and legislation challenging Trump’s tariffs if Democrats gain control of Congress after the November 3 midterm elections. Those proposals remain political objectives rather than enacted policy.
Even a successful diplomatic settlement would leave businesses facing an uncertain recovery. Canadian consumers have spent more than a year encountering alternatives to American wines, and polling suggests many intend to maintain their purchasing preferences. Distributors would need to rebuild orders, retailers would have to reconsider shelf space, and American wineries would need to demonstrate that their brands still appeal to Canadian customers. The situation underscores Schiff’s broader concern about the consequences of a prolonged trade confrontation. Tariffs can be removed through government decisions, but restoring business relationships and consumer confidence may take considerably longer.
