A trade fight with Canada has created an unusual political problem for Republicans in Michigan: one of Donald Trump’s own endorsed candidates is now publicly telling voters that the conflict has gone too far.
Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers has called Canada “not our enemy” and urged Washington to end the tariff war, even as Trump continues to defend tariffs as a tool for protecting American manufacturing. Rogers’ shift comes at a sensitive moment. A September New York Times/Siena poll found 67% of Michigan voters opposed tariffs on Canadian goods, including roughly one-third of voters who backed Trump in 2024. With Michigan’s economy deeply connected to Canadian factories, suppliers and consumers, the dispute has moved from an argument about trade strategy to an immediate question of prices, jobs and votes.
Rogers Draws a Line on Trump’s Canada Strategy
Rogers made his break with Trump unmistakable in an October campaign advertisement. Sitting in a neighborhood bar with a bottle of Labatt Blue, a Canadian beer with a long following in Michigan, the former congressman declared that Canada is “not our enemy” and said the tariff war needed to end. The setting was deliberate. Rogers framed cross-border ties not as something abstract negotiated by officials in Washington and Ottawa, but as part of everyday Michigan life. The advertisement even invoked the Detroit Red Wings, reinforcing the cultural as well as economic relationship between Michigan and its northern neighbor.
The message represented a notable shift. Rogers had previously defended tariffs as necessary, while arguing they should not be treated as a one-size-fits-all economic tool. He is hardly an anti-Trump Republican: Trump has repeatedly given Rogers his endorsement and traveled to Michigan in late October to campaign for him. That makes the disagreement more politically significant. Rogers is not running against Trump’s broader agenda. Instead, he is arguing that one particularly important piece of that agenda is creating problems serious enough in Michigan that a Trump-backed candidate needs distance from the White House.
The 67% Opposition Shows the Problem Goes Beyond Democrats
Michigan polling suggests Rogers is responding to something larger than predictable Democratic criticism of Trump. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted in September found 67% of Michigan voters opposed tariffs on Canadian goods. Particularly noteworthy was opposition among approximately one-third of Michiganders who voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential election. In a closely divided state, losing support on an economic issue from even a modest portion of the president’s own coalition can become consequential.
Other polling has pointed in the same direction. A WDIV/Detroit News poll of 600 likely Michigan voters found 64.2% opposed Trump’s 50% tariffs on selected Canadian goods, compared with 28.6% who supported them. More than 61% believed the tariffs would be bad for Michigan’s economy, while 71.5% expected them to increase what consumers pay for goods. The poll had a margin of error of four percentage points. Different pollsters can produce somewhat different results, but the pattern is difficult to miss: Michigan voters are considerably more skeptical of the Canada tariffs than the level of support Trump continues to enjoy among Republicans generally.
Michigan’s Economic Relationship With Canada Is Difficult to Untangle
Michigan is unusually exposed to a breakdown in U.S.-Canada trade because the border is less an economic dividing line than a link between industrial regions. Michigan transportation planners describe the state’s automotive supply chain as fundamentally binational and, when Mexico is included, trinational. In 2025 alone, Canada received roughly $21.2 billion worth of Michigan exports, representing about 36% of the state’s exports. Mexico accounted for another $16.6 billion, demonstrating just how heavily Michigan manufacturing depends on North American production networks.
Canada is also Michigan’s leading export market. The connection extends beyond goods loaded onto trucks: Canadian businesses have made billions of dollars in investments in Michigan, with automotive projects among the most important areas of activity. Detroit and Windsor sit directly across the river from one another, while border crossings such as the Ambassador Bridge and the newer Gordie Howe International Bridge form critical links in continental supply chains. That helps explain why a trade policy that might sound straightforward nationally becomes more complicated in Michigan. A tariff applied to a Canadian product can affect an American manufacturer that depends on that input before ultimately affecting a customer buying the finished product.
Auto Manufacturing Makes the Tariff Fight Especially Risky
The automotive industry magnifies those complications. Decades of trade integration have produced a system in which engines, transmissions, metals, electronics and other components move among factories in the United States, Canada and Mexico before a finished vehicle reaches a dealership. Michigan transportation officials say Canada and Mexico are by far the state’s largest international automotive trading partners, with Canadian destinations particularly important for high-frequency truck shipments associated with tightly integrated production.
The USMCA itself was designed around this reality. Its automotive rules generally require 75% regional value content for qualifying vehicles, encouraging automakers to treat North America as a production platform rather than three isolated markets. Tariffs imposed at points inside that system can therefore behave differently from tariffs on a finished consumer product imported once from overseas. Michigan state reports have documented manufacturers dealing with higher input costs, procurement uncertainty and delayed investment decisions as tariff rules changed. That does not mean tariffs cannot encourage domestic investment—Rogers argues that some have done exactly that—but it explains why Michigan manufacturers can simultaneously support targeted protection and resist tariffs that disrupt established Canadian supply chains.
Affordability Is Turning Trade Policy Into a Kitchen-Table Issue
For voters, the most powerful argument against tariffs may not involve trade theory at all. It is price. In the WDIV/Detroit News polling, more than seven in 10 likely voters said Canadian tariffs would increase what they pay. Separate Washington Post polling found the cost of living was the top issue for nearly half of Michigan voters. When households are already focused on grocery bills, cars, housing and energy, policies perceived as pushing costs higher become politically difficult to defend.
Independent economic estimates support the basic conclusion that tariffs impose costs on Americans, although estimates of their size vary substantially. Yale’s Budget Lab estimated that tariff policy under current law would ultimately lift consumer prices by roughly 0.7% and cost an average household about $1,100 annually. The Tax Foundation estimated a somewhat lower 2026 household tax burden of about $820. A widely circulated claim that tariffs cost each Michigan household $5,619 deserves more caution: PolitiFact found that figure was derived by dividing tariffs attributed to Michigan-bound imports by the number of households, even though many imported vehicles and components are ultimately sold elsewhere in the country. The burden is real, but that figure should not be interpreted as a literal bill paid by every Michigan family.
Rogers Is Breaking With Trump, But Only Up to a Point
Rogers’ current position is more nuanced than a simple rejection of Trump’s tariff agenda. During an October 25 appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” he continued to credit tariffs with encouraging manufacturing investment in Michigan. He pointed to plans involving Chevrolet production and Detroit Diesel as evidence that trade pressure can help bring industrial activity into the state. His objection is more specific: he said the automobile portion of the Canadian tariffs worried him and called for relief where tariffs harm Michigan.
He has even advocated tariffs in another part of the Canada relationship. Rogers has long objected to Canadian municipal waste being transported into Michigan landfills and recently praised the Trump administration for placing tariffs on some Canadian waste shipments. Politically, that allows him to tell Trump supporters he still believes tariffs can be useful while telling tariff-skeptical voters that he will challenge policies that threaten Michigan’s auto economy. Rogers has also presented his relationship with Trump as an advantage, arguing that a Republican senator able to speak directly with the president would be better positioned to secure Michigan-specific changes. The result is separation without a complete political divorce.
The Senate Race Gives Every Trade Decision More Weight
Rogers is making that distinction while competing in one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country. Michigan’s seat is open because Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, leaving Rogers against Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. Polling throughout October has generally shown a competitive race, although recent surveys have tended to give El-Sayed an advantage. A WDIV/Detroit News poll released October 27 found El-Sayed at 51.4% and Rogers at 45.1% among likely voters. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters from October 19 through October 22 and carried a four-point margin of error.
Other recent polls have shown a smaller difference, underscoring why neither party is treating Michigan as settled. Trump personally traveled to Port Huron on October 25 to campaign for Rogers and other Republican candidates, praising Rogers while defending his own approach toward Canada. That produced an unusual split-screen: Trump was asking Michigan voters to elect Rogers while Rogers was simultaneously warning that a central part of Trump’s Canada policy needed to change. In a race potentially decided by a small number of persuadable voters, tariffs have become more than a policy disagreement—they are part of the candidates’ closing economic arguments.
Michigan Is Part of a Broader Republican Tariff Problem
Rogers is not the only Republican confronting the tension between Trump’s trade strategy and border-state economics. Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins pressed the administration for exemptions from Canadian tariffs affecting industries in her state. On October 23, the administration removed tariffs from categories including packaging materials, refrigeration equipment and certain agricultural machinery, changes Collins said would help blueberry, potato, apple and other producers dependent on Canadian supplies.
The pressure extends beyond individual states. An AP-NORC poll published in October found 64% of U.S. adults believed Trump had gone too far in imposing new tariffs on other countries, while 68% disapproved of his handling of trade negotiations. Trump and his advisers continue to argue that tariffs protect workers, correct unfair trade relationships and encourage companies to invest in the United States. The political challenge for Republican candidates is deciding when those potential long-term benefits outweigh visible short-term costs in their own states. In Michigan, Rogers appears to have concluded that defending every Canadian tariff is no longer a sustainable position.
A Canada Deal Could Ease the Pressure, but Michigan Has Already Sent a Message
There is still a possibility that the political fight will change quickly. U.S. and Canadian officials have recently intensified negotiations aimed at reducing tariffs on Canadian steel and automobiles. Reuters reported that discussions have included U.S. duties of up to 50% on Canadian steel and 25% on automobiles, with officials exploring whether an agreement could be reached around the November 3 midterms. Trump told supporters in Michigan that the dispute would be settled relatively soon, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said increased progress reflects Washington moving closer to Canadian demands.
Whether those talks produce a lasting agreement remains uncertain. What is already clearer is how dramatically local economics can reshape national politics. Michigan is a state Trump won in 2024 and one where his endorsed Senate candidate still campaigns alongside him. Yet that candidate has concluded that opposition to the Canada tariff fight is important enough to state publicly. With 67% of Michigan voters opposing Canadian tariffs in one major poll, Rogers’ “not our enemy” message is less an isolated act of Republican rebellion than a recognition of the economic reality confronting a state whose factories, workers and communities have spent decades operating across the border.
