Quebecers are entering a provincial election campaign with an unusual willingness to accept some financial pain in a widening trade confrontation with the United States. New Léger polling shows that 66% support counter-tariffs on certain American products even when respondents are explicitly told the measures could raise prices in Canada.
That sentiment is emerging alongside an increasingly competitive provincial race. The Parti Québécois remains ahead, but the governing Coalition Avenir Québec has moved into second place, narrowly ahead of the Quebec Liberals. With the October 5 election still weeks away and a large share of voters saying their choice is not final, the campaign is becoming a test of whether anger toward Washington can outweigh concerns over household costs, health care and other domestic pressures.
Support for Retaliation Holds Even When the Cost Is Spelled Out
The most striking result in the latest Léger polling is not simply that Quebecers support Canadian retaliation. It is how much support survives once higher prices are put directly into the question. Initially, 78% of respondents supported imposing new tariffs on certain U.S. products. At the same time, 80% believed those tariffs would increase the prices Canadian consumers pay for at least some affected goods. When respondents were specifically reminded of that possible consequence, support fell — but only to 66%.
That gap matters politically. It suggests many Quebecers do not see retaliation as cost-free, yet remain prepared to support it anyway. Rather than assuming someone else will absorb the cost, respondents appear broadly aware that businesses may pass at least part of the tariff burden through to shoppers. For political leaders, that creates unusual room to defend trade retaliation even during a period when household affordability remains sensitive. The durability of that support after prices actually change, however, remains an open question.
The PQ Leads, but the CAQ Has Moved Into Second
The provincial contest remains led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois, which stands at 29% among decided voters in the new Léger numbers. Christine Fréchette’s CAQ follows at 24%, while Charles Milliard’s Quebec Liberal Party is close behind at 22%. Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party of Quebec has 15%, and Québec solidaire sits at 10%. Compared with Léger’s previous reading, the PQ and Liberals each slipped one point, the CAQ gained one and Québec solidaire gained three.
Those are relatively modest weekly movements, but the broader direction has made the campaign more competitive. A week earlier, the CAQ had jumped three points as Canada-U.S. trade negotiations broke down, creating hopes within the governing party that the external confrontation could reset a difficult political environment. Its latest one-point improvement is much smaller. The result leaves the PQ ahead but gives the CAQ a credible path back into contention if it can turn trade anxiety into confidence in its economic management.
Tariffs Matter to Voters, but They Are Not Crowding Out Everything Else
The trade war has clearly penetrated Quebec’s election campaign, but Léger’s findings also show the limits of its political reach. Some 53% of respondents described Donald Trump’s tariffs as one of the important issues in the campaign. Yet only 10% identified tariffs as the single most important issue. That difference explains why a strong public appetite for retaliation does not automatically translate into a decisive advantage for whichever provincial leader talks about Washington most aggressively.
Christine Fréchette nevertheless has an opening. When Léger asked which leader was best positioned to defend Quebec’s interests and deal with Trump’s tariffs, she ranked first at 21%. No leader dominated the broader set of issues tested, and on different questions between 36% and 43% either selected no leader or did not provide an answer. The numbers point to an electorate that has opinions about the trade fight without necessarily having settled on which provincial party should benefit politically from it.
The Warning About Higher Prices Is Grounded in Real Experience
Canada’s next round of counter-tariffs is scheduled to take effect September 8. Ottawa says the measures will cover $27.6 billion worth of U.S. imports and apply rates of 15%, 25% or 50%, depending on the product. Targeted areas include steel, dairy products, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics. The federal response is designed to match U.S. measures affecting Canadian exports rather than impose one uniform tariff across American goods.
Previous Canadian experience suggests that at least some of those costs can reach consumers. Bank of Canada researchers studied more than 110,000 products sold by seven major retailers during the 2025 counter-tariff episode. Goods affected by tariffs eventually became roughly 6% more expensive relative to the researchers’ comparison group, meaning about one-quarter of the 25% tariff was passed through into retail prices. The researchers estimated the episode added roughly 0.3 percentage points to consumer inflation before prices retreated after most counter-tariffs were removed.
Quebec Households Are Already Feeling Broader Price Pressure
The willingness to tolerate additional tariff-related costs is notable because Quebec is hardly entering the confrontation from a period of unusually low inflation. The province’s Consumer Price Index was 3.3% higher in July 2026 than a year earlier. Gasoline prices were up 21.4%, transportation costs were 6.1% higher and shelter costs had increased 3.3%. Excluding gasoline, Quebec inflation was still running at 2.8%.
That economic backdrop makes the 66% figure more politically significant. It is easier to endorse retaliation in an abstract geopolitical dispute when inflation is subdued; it is a different calculation when motorists, renters and grocery shoppers are already watching their monthly expenses carefully. The upcoming counter-tariffs will also touch products that households and businesses encounter directly, including appliances and electronics. Supporters may view those costs as part of defending Canadian interests, but governments will face pressure to demonstrate that the economic burden remains targeted rather than becoming another broad affordability shock.
Quebec Has Too Much U.S. Trade Exposure to Treat the Fight as Symbolic
For Quebec, the confrontation with Washington is tied to an enormous commercial relationship. The province exported $121.6 billion in merchandise internationally in 2025, with $84.8 billion — 69.8% of the total — going to the United States. That American share fell below 70% for the first time since 2020, but the U.S. remained overwhelmingly Quebec’s biggest export market. Important U.S.-bound products included aluminum, aircraft, aircraft engines, aerospace parts, paper and softwood lumber.
The pressure has continued in 2026. During the first six months of the year, Quebec exports to the United States were down 7.6% compared with the same period in 2025. Exports to countries other than the U.S., meanwhile, increased 8.7%. Those shifts help explain why diversification has become more than a campaign slogan. A manufacturer selling aluminum, aerospace components or paper cannot instantly replace decades of integrated North American demand. For affected communities, the tariff conflict reaches beyond national pride into orders, investment decisions, production schedules and employment.
Trump Has Become Part of the Provincial Political Strategy
Fréchette made the U.S. confrontation central from the opening of the campaign, portraying Trump as the principal external threat facing Quebec and arguing that the CAQ is best equipped to protect businesses and workers during the disruption. That strategy gives a governing party that has been in power since 2018 a way to shift attention toward an unpredictable international challenge rather than allowing the campaign to revolve exclusively around its domestic record.
Her rivals have taken different approaches. St-Pierre Plamondon has warned against allowing Trump to dominate Quebec’s democratic debate. The PQ leader has also said an independence referendum would not be held while Trump remains U.S. president, pushing such a vote beyond his current term in office. Liberal Leader Charles Milliard has used the same instability to make the opposite constitutional argument, saying Quebec gains strength by remaining part of Canada during an international trade confrontation. The result is that one U.S. dispute is being used to support sharply different visions of Quebec’s future.
A Large Pool of Voters Is Still Available to Be Won
Perhaps the most important number for the campaign beyond the 66% tariff result is 42%. That is the share of decided voters in the Léger research who nevertheless say their current choice is not final and that they could support another party. Party loyalty also varies significantly. About 65% of Conservative voters, 61% of PQ supporters and 60% of Liberal voters describe their decision as final, compared with only 44% of CAQ supporters and 39% of Québec solidaire voters.
That leaves considerable room for movement during the remaining campaign. It also means the CAQ’s recent improvement comes with a vulnerability: much of its current support is less firmly locked in than the support behind several rivals. A strong debate performance, a disruptive economic development or a visible change in Canada-U.S. relations could move voters quickly. With only five percentage points separating the PQ and CAQ and just two separating the CAQ and Liberals, relatively small shifts could materially change the shape of the race.
September 8 Could Be the Campaign’s First Real Tariff Test
The timing gives the trade issue unusual potential to evolve before Quebecers vote. Canada’s new counter-tariffs are due to begin at 12:01 a.m. on September 8, less than two weeks after the provincial campaign officially began. Quebec’s election takes place October 5, meaning consumers and businesses will have nearly four weeks to observe how retailers, suppliers and importers react before ballots are counted.
That could turn today’s polling question into something much more tangible. Before implementation, supporting retaliation means accepting the possibility of higher prices. After implementation, voters may begin seeing actual changes on invoices, store shelves or business costs. If the impact remains limited, the 66% figure could demonstrate enduring support for a firm Canadian response. If price increases become highly visible, attitudes could change. The election campaign therefore overlaps almost perfectly with an economic experiment: Quebecers are saying they are willing to pay something for retaliation, and the coming weeks may reveal how much that willingness is actually worth.
