A simple grocery-store staple has become another example of how American trade and immigration policies can influence the cost of living in Canada.
A new CBC Marketplace investigation published October 9, 2026, connects sharp increases in Canadian tomato prices to a combination of U.S. farm-labour disruptions, President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexican tomatoes, unfavourable growing conditions, and rising transportation expenses.
The findings highlight how decisions made beyond Canada’s borders can affect the price of everyday food. Mexico supplies a substantial portion of Canada’s imported tomatoes, while American agricultural producers depend heavily on immigrant labour.
Although these pressures have contributed to higher costs, the situation is more complicated than a single tariff or policy change. Seasonal production patterns, fuel prices, and the structure of North America’s agricultural supply chains all play important roles.
Canadian Tomato Prices Have Experienced Sharp Increases
Tomatoes have been among the grocery products experiencing significant price increases during 2026, creating another challenge for Canadians already dealing with expensive food. Statistics Canada figures included in a federal Finance Department briefing show that the average retail price of tomatoes reached $6.10 per kilogram in March 2026, representing a 19.6% increase compared with March 2025. That was considerably faster than the 2.4% annual increase in the overall Consumer Price Index during the same month.
However, the latest available figures demonstrate that the increases have not been continuous. By August 2026, the national average tomato price had declined to $4.80 per kilogram, according to Statistics Canada’s Food Price Data Hub. This distinction matters because fresh produce prices can fluctuate considerably throughout the year as harvesting conditions, seasonal availability, and transportation requirements change. CBC’s investigation examines the causes of substantial price spikes rather than establishing that tomatoes are becoming more expensive every month. For households purchasing fresh vegetables regularly, even temporary increases can make grocery budgeting more difficult, especially when other essential foods remain expensive.
CBC Identifies Several Pressures Behind the Tomato Price Surge
CBC Marketplace’s October 9 investigation examined why several Canadian grocery staples had experienced unusually large price increases during 2026. Economist Jim Stanford, director of the Centre for Future Work, and University of Guelph agriculture professor Mike von Massow identified multiple pressures affecting food prices, including international trade restrictions, changing immigration policies, weather conditions, and retailer pricing. Their analysis emphasized that different products face different economic problems, making it difficult to explain grocery inflation through one factor.
For tomatoes specifically, the investigation identified four interconnected pressures: reduced availability of agricultural labour in the United States, difficult growing conditions in Mexico, higher diesel transportation costs, and American tariffs on Mexican tomato imports. Each affects a different stage of the supply chain, from planting decisions to the cost of getting fresh produce onto Canadian shelves. Von Massow described the combination of tariffs and dry weather as a particularly difficult situation for Mexican growers. The significance is that Canadian shoppers can experience the consequences of American policy changes without Canada itself imposing the tariff responsible for disrupting a supplier’s business.
Trump’s 17.09% Tariff on Mexican Tomatoes Disrupted Trade
One of the clearest connections between American trade policy and tomato prices involves a tariff imposed in July 2025. The Trump administration terminated a 2019 agreement governing fresh tomato imports from Mexico and introduced an antidumping duty of 17.09% on most Mexican tomatoes entering the United States. American officials argued that the measure was necessary to protect domestic farmers from unfairly priced imports. Mexico, meanwhile, challenged the decision and expressed concerns about its consequences for agricultural trade.
The measure remained in place during 2026. On June 30, the U.S. International Trade Commission determined that circumstances had not changed sufficiently to justify revoking the existing antidumping order. Importantly, this is an American duty on Mexican tomatoes entering the United States, not a 17.09% tax imposed by Canada on its own Mexican imports. Its potential effect on Canadian grocery prices is indirect. By making American sales less profitable for Mexican growers, the duty can influence planting decisions, export strategies, and the overall availability of tomatoes across North America. The precise portion of Canadian retail price increases attributable to this measure has not been established.
Mexico’s Importance to Canada’s Tomato Supply Explains the Concern
Mexico plays a substantial role in keeping Canadian grocery stores supplied with fresh tomatoes. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada figures show that Canada imported 111,854 metric tonnes of field tomatoes in 2025, with approximately 67,456 tonnes coming from Mexico. That represented roughly 60% of the field-tomato imports covered by the dataset. The United States supplied another 43,839 tonnes, making the two countries overwhelmingly important to this particular category of imported vegetables.
Mexico’s importance extends beyond field-grown tomatoes. A separate Canadian government report covering greenhouse vegetables found that Mexico supplied 74,067 tonnes of Canada’s 91,812 tonnes of imported greenhouse tomatoes in 2024. Together, these figures show why production decisions in Mexico matter to Canadian shoppers. A reduction in Mexican output can affect the availability of products that Canadian distributors normally expect to purchase. However, it is equally important to recognize that changes in U.S. tariffs do not automatically increase Canadian prices. Mexican growers may redirect some shipments toward Canada or other markets, potentially offsetting shortages. Actual retail prices depend on the amount of produce available, commercial contracts, transportation costs, and competing demand.
Mexican Farmers Are Facing Pressure to Reduce Production
The potential consequences of American tariffs extend well beyond the cost of clearing goods through customs. In a June 2026 report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast that Mexican tomato production would decline approximately 9% in 2026 to 2.6 million metric tonnes. The agency also expected planted area to fall 11% to 38,000 hectares, reflecting weaker profit margins, uncertain export conditions, and unfavourable weather. These were projections rather than final production results.
That forecast helps explain the concerns raised by CBC. Mexican tomato producers have historically depended heavily on American customers, with the United States purchasing more than 90% of Mexico’s exportable tomato supply in typical years. When access to that market becomes more expensive, growers must decide whether to continue planting the same quantities, reduce production, or pursue alternative crops and customers. The USDA also identified appreciation of the Mexican peso as an additional problem because exporters earning U.S. dollars could receive less revenue when converting those earnings into pesos. For Canadian importers, uncertainty over production levels can make planning more difficult, even when tomatoes imported directly from Mexico are not subject to the American antidumping duty.
Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Has Complicated U.S. Farm Labour
Changes to American immigration enforcement provide another explanation for the challenges facing fresh produce suppliers. U.S. Department of Agriculture research shows that foreign-born workers are essential to American crop production. According to its analysis of agricultural worker surveys conducted between 2020 and 2022, approximately 42% of hired crop workers covered by those surveys lacked legal work authorization. That makes the industry particularly sensitive to immigration enforcement, although the historical percentage should not be mistaken for an estimate of the workforce in 2026.
A September 2026 study published in Applied Economic Insights provides more recent evidence. Researchers Zachariah Rutledge and Myat Thida Win found that one in four surveyed California farmers reported at least one negative consequence associated with immigration enforcement, including labour losses, operational disruption, or worker anxiety. Some businesses responded by using labour contractors, offering incentives to retain workers, or reducing production. Reuters had previously documented farms in California where immigration raids discouraged workers from reporting for harvests. These findings support CBC’s concerns about agricultural labour availability. They do not, however, establish precisely how much American immigration policy contributed to Canadian tomato prices.
Higher Diesel Prices Are Making Fresh Food More Expensive to Transport
Even when farmers successfully produce enough tomatoes, getting those tomatoes to consumers represents another major expense. Fresh vegetables must travel through an interconnected network of packing facilities, distribution centres, trucking companies, and grocery warehouses before reaching store shelves. CBC identified higher diesel prices as one of the pressures contributing to tomato costs, particularly because many imported vegetables travel substantial distances before arriving in Canadian markets.
Statistics Canada’s Food Price Data Hub provides evidence of how dramatically energy costs have changed. Its producer-price measure for diesel fuel increased 75% year over year in August 2026, while the corresponding measure for motor gasoline rose 42.1%. These figures represent price movements for fuel sold by Canadian petroleum producers, rather than the exact increase paid by every trucking company. Nevertheless, they demonstrate the scale of broader fuel-price pressures. Higher transportation costs can affect produce distributors through increased freight rates and delivery expenses. Since fresh tomatoes have a limited shelf life, businesses cannot always delay shipments until transportation becomes cheaper. Although diesel is only one component of a tomato’s retail price, expensive fuel can amplify the effects of shortages, poor harvests, and uncertainty in international trade.
Canada’s Greenhouse Industry Offers Another Source of Tomatoes
Canada is not entirely dependent on imported tomatoes. Domestic greenhouse production represents a substantial part of the country’s agricultural industry, especially in Ontario. Statistics Canada reported that Canadian greenhouse growers produced 334.7 million kilograms of tomatoes for sale in 2025, representing a 4.5% increase from the previous year. Tomatoes were the leading greenhouse vegetable by sales value, while cucumbers recorded a larger production volume. Ontario accounted for 64.9% of the country’s total greenhouse area, reflecting its important position in Canadian fresh vegetable production.
However, growing more tomatoes domestically does not automatically guarantee lower prices for Canadian consumers. Statistics Canada found that Canadian greenhouse tomato exports reached 231.7 million kilograms in 2025, with the United States remaining the overwhelmingly dominant destination for Canadian greenhouse vegetable exports. Canadian growers are therefore participants in the same interconnected North American market affected by tariffs, transportation expenses, and commercial demand. Expanding year-round domestic production could improve supply security, but greenhouse operators must also manage energy, labour, equipment, and infrastructure costs. Additional capacity may reduce vulnerability to foreign shortages over time without eliminating price fluctuations.
Grocery Inflation and Retail Competition Remain Part of the Problem
Tomatoes are only one example of the broader affordability challenges facing Canadian households. Statistics Canada’s latest Consumer Price Index figures show that grocery-store food prices increased 2.8% year over year in August 2026, compared with a 3.0% increase in overall consumer prices. Although grocery inflation was slightly below general inflation that month, food prices had increased faster than the overall index in most recent months. Families purchasing multiple expensive staples can consequently experience considerable financial pressure even when the national inflation rate appears relatively moderate.
The role of grocery retailers has also attracted government scrutiny. On September 28, Canada’s Competition Bureau announced an investigation into minimum advertised pricing policies used in the grocery industry. Such arrangements can restrict how cheaply retailers advertise certain products, potentially limiting competition. Separately, the Bureau reached a September agreement with Empire, the parent company of Sobeys, addressing property restrictions that can discourage competing grocery stores from opening. These developments are important to the wider affordability discussion, although neither investigation establishes that grocery retailers caused the tomato price spikes documented by CBC. The cost of food reflects decisions and expenses across the entire supply chain, not simply the price displayed at checkout.
Ottawa Is Pursuing Food-Supply Changes, but Relief Could Take Time
The Canadian government has introduced several measures intended to improve food affordability and reduce supply-chain vulnerabilities. In June 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a National Food Security Strategy supported by more than $3 billion in investments over ten years. The strategy includes $1 billion for food infrastructure, a $150-million Food Security Fund, and initiatives intended to encourage domestic production and stronger grocery competition. Proposed improvements to food terminals, distribution systems, and greenhouse investment could eventually make it easier for Canadian producers to supply local markets.
Shorter-term assistance has focused on household purchasing power. The Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit began providing enhanced quarterly payments in July 2026, building on a one-time payment delivered in June and targeting more than 12 million Canadians. However, financial assistance does not directly solve shortages in Mexican agriculture or labour disruptions affecting American farms. Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald acknowledged to CBC that improvements from the government’s broader food strategy would not happen overnight. Looking ahead, tomato prices will depend partly on whether Mexican production stabilizes, American trade restrictions change, transportation expenses ease, and Canadian suppliers increase their capacity. The central lesson from CBC’s investigation is that food affordability cannot be separated from the international policies and production decisions shaping North America’s agricultural economy.
