Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew is sending a firm message to Washington as Canada’s trade dispute with the United States continues to threaten businesses, workers, and economic stability. During an October 8 meeting with Canada’s U.S. ambassador, Mark Wiseman, Kinew pledged to keep defending the province’s interests while working toward stronger cross-border relationships.
The meeting comes at a difficult time for Manitoba’s economy. American tariffs are creating uncertainty for manufacturers, farmers, and exporters, while negotiations over the future of North America’s trade agreement remain unresolved.
With billions of dollars in exports and thousands of jobs connected to the American market, Manitoba has considerable economic interests to protect. Kinew’s latest remarks reflect a broader Canadian challenge: standing firm against U.S. trade pressure without damaging the commercial relationships that communities on both sides of the border depend upon.
Kinew Delivers a Defiant Message During Ambassador’s Visit
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew made his position unmistakable when Canada’s ambassador to the United States, Mark Wiseman, visited the Manitoba Legislative Building on October 8, 2026. The premier said his government would continue to defend Manitoba jobs and workers despite ongoing trade uncertainty with Washington. Using the hockey-inspired expression that has become familiar throughout Canada’s trade dispute, Kinew declared that the province would keep its elbows up. His remarks came as provincial officials sought to strengthen relationships with American partners while ensuring Manitoba’s concerns remained visible during national trade discussions.
However, Kinew’s message was not solely confrontational. The premier also emphasized the importance of preparing Manitoba for future economic opportunities rather than focusing exclusively on current disagreements. His government wants businesses to remain competitive, maintain employment, and pursue stronger international relationships. That combination of resistance and cooperation reflects the difficult position facing Canadian provincial leaders. Manitoba cannot independently resolve Canada’s dispute with the Trump administration, but its government can advocate for local industries, provide economic assistance, and ensure the province’s concerns reach federal negotiators responsible for managing the relationship.
Canada’s Ambassador Heard Directly From Manitoba Business Leaders
Mark Wiseman’s visit involved considerably more than a meeting with the premier. The ambassador also participated in discussions with Manitoba’s U.S. Trade Council, the Premier’s Business and Jobs Council trade subcommittee, and the Business Council of Manitoba. These organizations brought together representatives from business, labour, and Indigenous leadership to explain how changing trade conditions are affecting the provincial economy. Their involvement reflects an understanding that the consequences of tariffs extend well beyond government offices, influencing investment decisions, business confidence, and employment opportunities throughout Manitoba.
Wiseman brings an unusual background to Canada’s diplomatic relationship with Washington. Appointed ambassador in February 2026, he previously held senior positions at BlackRock and served as president and chief executive officer of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. His experience in financial markets and international investment provides a different perspective on trade negotiations. During the Winnipeg visit, local economic leaders emphasized the importance of having their concerns heard directly by Canadian representatives in Washington. For employers deciding whether to expand production, invest in equipment, or pursue new customers, predictable access to the American market remains an important consideration.
Manitoba’s $12.9 Billion U.S. Export Relationship Is at Risk
Manitoba’s dependence on the American market explains why provincial leaders are treating the trade dispute seriously. According to the Manitoba government’s tariff-response information, the province exported approximately C$12.9 billion worth of goods to the United States in 2025. Those shipments represented 66% of Manitoba’s total domestic merchandise exports. Such substantial exposure means American trade restrictions can affect a broad range of local businesses, from agricultural processors and manufacturers to transportation companies that move goods across the international border.
Recent figures illustrate the pressure facing exporters. Statistics Canada data published through the federal Trade Data Online system show Manitoba’s exports to the United States fell approximately 6% during the first eight months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Their value declined from about C$9.06 billion to C$8.52 billion. These numbers do not establish that tariffs alone caused the decline, since commodity prices, demand, and other market conditions also influence trade. Nevertheless, they demonstrate why American market access remains so important. A prolonged disruption could affect business revenues and future investment decisions across the province.
Manufacturing Workers Have Plenty at Stake
Manitoba’s manufacturing industry is particularly exposed to changing trade conditions because many of its products serve customers and supply chains beyond Canada. The province’s trade strategy identifies manufacturing as its largest industrial sector, with exports exceeding C$12 billion in 2025. Manitoba is home to major businesses involved in aerospace, agricultural equipment, heavy vehicles, and other advanced manufacturing activities. Companies associated with these industries include NFI Group, StandardAero, Boeing Canada, and numerous specialized suppliers that support larger production operations.
Food processing represents another important source of employment. Provincial statistics show Manitoba’s food and beverage manufacturing sector recorded approximately C$9.46 billion in sales during 2025 and directly employed 15,988 people. These figures help illustrate what is at stake when exporters encounter additional costs or changing customer expectations. A manufacturer facing weaker demand may postpone hiring, delay machinery purchases, or reconsider expansion plans. Even companies whose products are not directly subject to a particular tariff can experience indirect pressure when customers or suppliers encounter new expenses. For workers supporting households through manufacturing wages, these uncertainties can become personal financial concerns rather than distant political disagreements.
Manitoba’s Farmers Face Their Own Trade Challenges
Agriculture is another major reason Manitoba cannot afford a prolonged breakdown in trade relations. Provincial agricultural data show Manitoba exported approximately C$9.04 billion in agri-food products worldwide during 2025. The United States accounted for roughly C$3.95 billion of those exports, representing 43.7% of the total. Important products shipped south included canola oil, processed frozen potatoes, and pork. American demand therefore supports activity extending from farms and food-processing facilities to trucking companies and distribution networks.
The province’s agri-food exports to the United States declined 8.1% in 2025 compared with 2024, primarily because of reduced shipments of canola oil and canola meal. Trade disruptions are not the only challenge facing agricultural producers, but additional restrictions can make an already complicated business environment more unpredictable. A farmer planning next year’s crop or a processor negotiating supply contracts needs confidence about future market access. Manitoba also sells substantial quantities of agricultural products to Japan, China, and Mexico, providing alternatives to American buyers. Expanding those markets could strengthen the province’s resilience, although developing reliable new customers requires time, transportation capacity, and commercially competitive pricing.
Manitoba Unveils More Than $100 Million in Tariff Relief
Recognizing the financial pressure on businesses and workers, Manitoba announced more than C$100 million in targeted tariff-response measures on August 28, 2026. The package includes C$50 million for a Trade Resilience Loan Program intended to provide low-interest working capital financing to eligible businesses affected by trade restrictions. Another C$13.7 million was allocated to establish the Tariff Workforce Stabilization and Youth Employment Program, offering wage subsidies to support employers and workers. The province also introduced additional export assistance and measures intended to help businesses manage short-term financial difficulties.
The details are important because the assistance is not simply a collection of unrestricted grants. The Trade Resilience Loan Program provides repayable financing ranging from C$100,000 to C$1 million for eligible applicants. Manitoba also announced opportunities for businesses to defer certain provincially administered tax payments relating to September through December 2026. Agricultural loan-guarantee programs were expanded, including higher borrowing limits for qualifying diversification projects. These measures are designed to give businesses time to adjust while maintaining operations and employment. However, government assistance cannot guarantee that every affected company will avoid layoffs or financial losses. Its effectiveness will depend on accessibility, business needs, and how long trade uncertainty persists.
Manitoba Has Established Its Own Presence in Washington
Kinew’s government has also been working to strengthen Manitoba’s influence in the American capital rather than relying exclusively on federal diplomatic channels. The province established a permanent trade presence in Washington, D.C., and appointed Richard Madan as its senior representative to the United States in 2025. Madan, a former journalist with extensive experience covering American politics, has been responsible for communicating Manitoba’s economic priorities and building relationships with American decision-makers. His work reflects the growing importance of provincial involvement in international trade advocacy.
In May 2026, Madan presented a report on the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement after consulting 118 business, labour, and Indigenous organizations. The consultations examined issues affecting sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, critical minerals, transportation, and financial services. The findings emphasized the importance of predictable North American trade rules and continued access to American markets. Having a dedicated representative in Washington gives Manitoba another channel for explaining how American policies affect Canadian businesses and workers. While provincial representatives do not control federal trade negotiations, they can supply industry-specific information, maintain relationships, and advocate for solutions before decisions create further disruption.
CUSMA Remains in Force, but Its Future Is Uncertain
The future of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement has become one of the most consequential issues in the trade dispute. CUSMA took effect on July 1, 2020, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement. During the agreement’s first scheduled joint review on July 1, 2026, the United States declined to extend the existing arrangement for another 16-year term. That decision increased uncertainty about the future of continental trade, particularly for businesses that depend on consistent rules governing cross-border commerce.
Importantly, Washington’s refusal to extend CUSMA did not immediately terminate the agreement. Under its existing provisions, the arrangement remains in force, with annual reviews continuing until the parties agree to an extension or the current term reaches its scheduled expiration in 2036. The U.S. Trade Representative has already begun preparations for the 2027 review, requesting public submissions by January 12, 2027. For Manitoba exporters, the distinction matters. Existing trade rules continue to provide a framework for commercial activity, but the absence of agreement on an extension creates longer-term uncertainty. Businesses making investments that may take years to recover must consider whether future market conditions will remain favourable.
The American Liquor Boycott Remains a Symbolic Pressure Point
Manitoba has already demonstrated its willingness to challenge American trade policies through measures that consumers can see directly. In February 2025, the provincial government directed Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries to remove American alcohol products from government-operated liquor stores. The decision formed part of Manitoba’s response to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Although some previously purchased inventory was subsequently offered for sale during limited periods, American liquor products were again being removed from Liquor Mart shelves in August 2026.
Kinew has also connected the liquor dispute to the future of CUSMA through his memorable phrase, “No CUSMA, no booze-ma.” In August, he acknowledged that Prime Minister Mark Carney wanted provinces to consider returning American alcohol to store shelves as part of efforts to secure a trade agreement. Kinew indicated that Manitoba could reconsider its restrictions if doing so helped achieve a satisfactory outcome, while encouraging consumers to continue supporting Canadian products. The boycott illustrates both the opportunities and limitations of provincial trade pressure. It sends a visible political message and creates difficulties for affected American suppliers, but restrictions on consumer products cannot independently resolve broader disputes involving manufacturing, tariffs, and market access.
Canada’s Retaliatory Tariffs Have Increased the Stakes
The dispute intensified in August 2026 after the United States imposed a 50% tariff on approximately C$27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods. Ottawa responded by announcing matching countermeasures targeting an equivalent value of American imports. The Canadian tariffs, which took effect September 8, range from 15% to 50% and cover products across sectors including steel, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. The federal government also announced additional financial support intended to help Canadian workers and businesses respond to the disruption.
Washington argues that its trade strategy is intended to address economic imbalances and strengthen American production. Canadian officials, meanwhile, maintain that the tariffs damage established commercial relationships and create unnecessary uncertainty for businesses. For Manitoba, the challenge is especially difficult because protecting provincial industries requires both political resolve and continued cooperation with American trading partners. Businesses purchasing components or equipment from the United States may also face higher costs when Canadian countermeasures apply. This creates a delicate balancing act for Kinew and Carney: maintaining pressure during negotiations while limiting the economic consequences for Canadian employers and consumers.
Manitoba Looks Beyond the U.S. While Preparing for a Long Dispute
Manitoba’s government is increasingly emphasizing trade diversification as a longer-term response to American uncertainty. In July 2026, the province announced plans to establish trade representative positions focused on Europe and Mexico, building on an earlier initiative targeting India. These efforts are intended to help local businesses identify customers, establish commercial relationships, and expand sales beyond the United States. There are already signs of opportunities elsewhere. Manitoba’s merchandise exports to the European Union increased from approximately C$528 million in 2024 to C$830 million in 2025, according to the province’s trade strategy.
Nevertheless, alternative markets cannot quickly replace Canada’s largest trading partner. On October 8, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that Washington was maintaining its negotiating position despite continued high-level communication with Canadian officials. His remarks suggest that significant differences remain unresolved. For Manitoba, the immediate priorities are protecting employment, supporting affected businesses, and ensuring the province’s interests remain visible during negotiations. Longer term, success will depend on turning diversification plans into sustained export sales and investment. Kinew’s commitment to keeping Manitoba’s elbows up captures the political mood, but the real measure of success will be whether provincial businesses and workers can emerge from the dispute with stronger economic prospects.
