Michigan’s relationship with Canada has become a surprisingly sharp political fault line. A new WDIV/Detroit News poll of 600 likely Michigan voters found that 67.8% disapprove of President Donald Trump’s handling of the U.S.-Canada relationship, while 27.1% approve. More than half of respondents—54.5%—said they strongly disapprove.
The result lands at a sensitive moment for a state whose economy, auto industry and border communities are deeply tied to Canada. It also arrives just days before the November 3 midterm elections, as tariffs and trade policy have moved from an abstract Washington debate into questions about prices, factory investment and cross-border business. The poll does not reveal why each voter disapproves, but the broader data around Michigan’s economy helps explain why Canada has become an unusually consequential issue.
The Canada Rating Is One of Trump’s Weakest in the Michigan Poll
The poll, conducted October 19 through October 22 by the Glengariff Group, asked likely voters whether they approved or disapproved of Trump’s handling of “our relationship with Canada.” Only 13.8% strongly approved and another 13.3% somewhat approved. On the other side, 13.3% somewhat disapproved and 54.5% strongly disapproved. Another 5.2% were neutral, unsure or declined to answer.
That produces a net disapproval margin of 40.7 percentage points over approval; the poll’s stated margin of error is plus or minus four points. The intensity matters as much as the top-line number. Strong disapproval was nearly four times as large as strong approval, suggesting that Canada is not merely an issue on which many voters are mildly skeptical. For a neighboring country woven into Michigan’s industrial and cultural life, the result points to a relationship that voters increasingly see as mishandled rather than simply complicated today.
Disapproval on Canada Runs Deeper Than Trump’s Overall Job Rating
The same poll gives useful context. Trump’s overall job approval stood at 38.9%, while 59.2% disapproved of his performance as president. On the economy, 20.9% strongly approved and 17.3% somewhat approved, compared with 9.9% who somewhat disapproved and 49.5% who strongly disapproved. That puts economic disapproval at roughly 59%.
Canada was therefore a noticeably weaker area than Trump’s overall job performance. The 67.8% disapproval reading on Canada was about nine points higher than his general disapproval rating. It was also close to the poll’s 67.1% disapproval of his handling of the war with Iran. That comparison does not prove voters place Canada on the same level of importance as war or the economy, but it does show how negative the assessment has become. In Michigan, relations with a friendly neighbor are producing numbers normally associated with much more polarizing national issues in an election year.
Earlier Tariff Polling Already Showed a Warning Sign
The October result did not appear out of nowhere. In a separate WDIV/Detroit News poll conducted from August 31 through September 3, 64.2% of likely Michigan voters opposed Trump’s 50% tariffs on selected Canadian goods, while 28.6% supported them. A majority—61.5%—said the tariffs would be bad for Michigan’s economy, compared with 16.9% who believed they would be good.
The most striking finding may have been the household-cost question. In that earlier poll, 71.5% said the Canadian tariffs would increase what they pay for goods. Just 6.2% thought the tariffs would lower their costs, while 15.1% expected no impact. Those views matter because affordability has been a persistent concern in Michigan politics. The September results suggest many voters were already connecting the Canada dispute to their own economic interests before the latest relationship question was asked. The October poll broadens that dissatisfaction from a specific tariff policy to Trump’s handling of the bilateral relationship itself.
Michigan Has More at Stake With Canada Than Most States
Michigan’s exposure to Canada is unusually large. According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Canada was Michigan’s largest export market in 2025. The state shipped about $23.2 billion in goods north of the border, equal to roughly 39% of Michigan’s total goods exports. Mexico was a distant second at $16.6 billion.
The connection reaches far beyond a handful of giant manufacturers. USTR data show that 13,631 companies exported from Michigan locations in 2024, and 88% of them were small or medium-sized businesses. Transportation equipment remains the state’s dominant export category, accounting for roughly $25.2 billion in exports in 2025. That means policy changes affecting Canada can filter through large automakers, parts suppliers, logistics companies and smaller manufacturers at the same time. For workers and business owners in Michigan, the Canada relationship is not simply foreign policy. It is tied directly to customers, suppliers, investment decisions and the health of regional manufacturing.
The Auto Supply Chain Makes Border Friction Especially Costly
Michigan and Ontario operate less like separate automotive economies than two heavily integrated pieces of one production system. Automakers and suppliers maintain facilities on both sides of the border, and components can cross between the United States and Canada multiple times before a finished vehicle reaches a dealership. That structure makes predictability at the border especially valuable and makes new tariffs or restrictions harder to isolate.
Federal freight data show the scale. In 2025, truck trade through the Detroit, Michigan, crossing was worth about $94.2 billion, accounting for 23.7% of U.S.-Canada truck trade. Port Huron handled another roughly $87.3 billion, or 22%. Together, those two Michigan gateways represented nearly 46% of U.S.-Canada truck freight by value. A disruption that slows shipments, raises input costs or changes sourcing decisions can therefore ripple well beyond a single plant. When Michigan voters hear about a tariff fight with Canada, many are hearing about a system that touches assembly lines, trucking routes and supplier payrolls close to home.
Cross-Border Travel Shows the Relationship Is Personal as Well as Economic
The strain in U.S.-Canada relations has also shown up in ordinary travel. Statistics Canada reported that Canadian residents’ return border crossings from the United States fell 25.4% in 2025 compared with 2024. The pullback was historically large outside the pandemic period, and early 2026 travel remained well below earlier levels even as year-over-year comparisons began to improve.
The Detroit-Windsor corridor illustrates how deeply everyday movement is embedded in the relationship. The new Gordie Howe International Bridge opened on July 27, 2026. In its first full month, August, Statistics Canada recorded about 134,900 Canadian-resident return automobile trips and 101,000 U.S.-resident automobile trips entering Canada through the bridge, along with 34,800 commercial trucks. Those numbers illustrate the sheer volume of personal and commercial movement across a metropolitan region divided by an international border. For many Michigan communities, deterioration in the bilateral relationship can ultimately be felt through traffic, tourism, commerce and business activity rather than diplomatic language alone.
Canada Has Become a Michigan Midterm Campaign Issue
The political consequences are now visible in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race. Republican nominee Mike Rogers, who had broadly supported Trump’s tariff agenda, publicly called in October for an end to the tariff fight with Canada. His campaign argued that tariffs hurting Michigan consumers or businesses should be changed, while Rogers emphasized the state’s close ties to its northern neighbor.
The same October 19-22 WDIV/Detroit News poll found Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed leading Rogers 51.4% to 45.1%, with 3.6% undecided. That poll cannot establish that the Canada issue is causing the gap, and voters weigh many issues when choosing a senator. Still, the overlap is politically important: a Republican candidate in a competitive race is distancing himself from a presidential policy that nearly two-thirds of likely voters had already opposed in earlier polling. Trump traveled to Port Huron on October 25 and predicted the Canada dispute would be settled soon, underscoring how central border-state politics have become.
A Trade Deal Could Ease Tensions, but the Poll Points to a Broader Trust Problem
There are signs that Washington and Ottawa may be edging back toward negotiations. On October 26, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said discussions had intensified slightly and argued that any progress reflected the United States moving closer to Canada’s position. Trump, speaking in Michigan a day earlier, said he expected the trade dispute to be resolved soon, although he did not provide terms or a timetable.
The underlying relationship remains unsettled. The United States declined to renew the USMCA in its current form at the July 1 joint review, though the agreement remains in force while the review process continues. The White House has also kept adjusting the list of Canadian products subject to 50% Section 338 tariffs, with another set of changes scheduled to take effect October 30. A deal could reduce immediate economic pressure, but the Michigan poll suggests the political damage may not disappear overnight. Nearly 68% disapproval is a warning that voters are judging not only individual tariffs, but the stewardship of one of Michigan’s most important international relationships.
