Canada’s increasingly tense relationship with the United States has become a defining political concern, particularly among Canadians who support Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party. New polling suggests that Donald Trump’s trade policies, escalating tariff disputes, and uncertainty surrounding the future of North American trade are reshaping public priorities and influencing political support.
Research released in November 2026 shows Canada–U.S. relations overtaking housing and economic concerns as the country’s most pressing national issue. The findings also highlight Carney’s advantage over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in managing relations with Washington. However, beneath that political support lies a more complicated reality: Canadians remain concerned about affordability, economic stability, and the potential consequences of a prolonged trade confrontation with their largest trading partner.
Canada–U.S. Relations Become the Country’s Leading Concern
For the first time since July 2025, Canada’s relationship with the United States has returned to the top of the national political agenda. A Research Co. poll released November 12, 2026, found that 26% of Canadians identified Canada–U.S. relations as the single most important issue facing the country, an increase of 14 percentage points from August. Housing, homelessness, and poverty ranked second at 19%, followed by the economy and jobs at 18%, health care at 12%, and immigration at 8%.
The shift illustrates how developments in Washington can rapidly change political priorities north of the border. Trade negotiations, tariff threats, and uncertainty about future market access have implications extending beyond Parliament Hill. For workers in manufacturing communities, small businesses dependent on cross-border customers, and families concerned about job security, the relationship with the United States is closely connected to economic stability. Importantly, the research measured respondents’ single biggest concern, rather than asking them to choose several priorities. That distinction helps explain why other polls continue to place affordability at the top of Canadians’ concerns.
Liberal Supporters Are Particularly Concerned About Washington
The political divide becomes clearer when the results are broken down by voting history. Research Co.’s detailed tables show that 32% of Canadians who voted Liberal in the 2025 federal election identified Canada–U.S. relations as their leading national concern. That compares with 22% of previous Conservative voters and 18% of previous NDP voters. The difference suggests that uncertainty surrounding Washington has become especially important to the political coalition that helped bring Carney to power.
Separate Abacus Data polling conducted in September 2026 revealed an even sharper partisan contrast. Among Liberal voters, 63% selected Donald Trump and his administration as one of Canada’s three most important issues, compared with 22% of Conservative voters. The two studies asked different questions, but both point toward a relationship between Liberal support and concern about the American administration. For Carney, this creates an opportunity to demonstrate leadership on an issue that strongly resonates with his political base. It also means decisions about tariffs and trade negotiations are likely to receive close scrutiny from those already inclined to support his government.
Donald Trump Has Become a Political Issue in His Own Right
Donald Trump is no longer simply a foreign leader whose decisions occasionally affect Canadian politics. His administration has become a recurring concern in domestic political discussions, reflecting the unusually direct relationship between American policy decisions and Canada’s economic outlook. An Abacus Data survey conducted between October 30 and November 4 found that 38% of Canadians selected Trump and his administration among the country’s three most important issues, tying the broader economy for second place behind the cost of living.
That concern is especially pronounced in Quebec, where 51% of respondents in the same study identified Trump as a top-three issue. The results underline how political developments in Washington can compete with traditionally domestic priorities such as health care, housing, and immigration. Trump’s significance extends beyond any individual tariff announcement because Canadian businesses and policymakers must also consider how quickly American policies could change. For voters who prioritize predictability, even the possibility of additional restrictions can become a source of concern. This helps explain why managing Trump has developed into a major test of federal leadership.
Carney Holds a Substantial Advantage Over Poilievre on U.S. Relations
The latest polling suggests that Carney’s handling of the American relationship remains one of his strongest political assets. Research Co. found that 50% of Canadians considered Carney better suited to manage Canada–U.S. relations, compared with 23% who preferred Poilievre. Carney also led on foreign affairs, 52% to 26%, and the economy and jobs, 47% to 29%. Overall, 62% approved of Carney’s performance as prime minister, while the Liberals commanded 47% support among decided voters, compared with 28% for the Conservatives.
An earlier Abacus Data analysis helps explain the significance of those numbers. Using a statistical model based on an August 2026 survey, researchers found that respondents who approved of the government’s handling of relations with the United States had nearly six times the odds of approving of the government overall, after accounting for their assessments of nine other policy areas. This was an observed association, not proof of causation. Nevertheless, it demonstrated how closely Carney’s political standing was linked to public confidence in his management of tariffs, trade, and Washington. The relationship provides considerable political strength, but it also creates vulnerability if voters become dissatisfied with the results.
Tariff Disputes Are Creating Real Consequences for Canadian Workers
The importance of trade policy becomes particularly clear in communities where manufacturing jobs depend on access to the American market. In Brampton, Ontario, more than 2,000 Stellantis workers have faced prolonged uncertainty since the automaker idled its assembly plant in 2023. The company’s subsequent decision to move planned Jeep Compass production to Illinois, followed by an agreement to sell the Canadian facility to defence manufacturer Roshel, has intensified concerns about Canada’s automotive future.
On November 12, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly issued Stellantis a notice of default concerning its 2022 federal funding agreement. The company was given 30 days to address the alleged breaches or face possible financial penalties, including repayment obligations. Ottawa had previously committed up to $529 million to support retooling at the company’s Brampton and Windsor facilities. While investment decisions involve multiple business considerations, the dispute illustrates the economic stakes of the wider trade confrontation. American tariffs on selected Canadian goods have reached 50%, while automotive and other sector-specific measures create separate challenges. For affected workers and their families, the debate is ultimately about whether stable, well-paying jobs will remain available in Canada.
Affordability Remains a Major Vulnerability for the Liberal Government
Although the American relationship has gained prominence, Canadians have not abandoned their concerns about household finances. Abacus Data’s November 8 findings showed that 63% of respondents selected the rising cost of living as one of Canada’s three most important issues. Yet only 29% approved of the Carney government’s handling of inflation and affordability, while 47% disapproved. By comparison, 54% approved of its management of Canada–U.S. relations, revealing a substantial difference in how Canadians assess the government’s performance.
The contrast became more apparent in polling conducted immediately after the November 5 federal budget. Abacus found that 60% believed the budget did not do enough to address the current cost of living, including half of respondents who had voted Liberal in 2025. Only 12% expected the budget to improve their household finances, while 47% anticipated little difference. These results suggest that voters can support the government’s efforts to protect Canadian economic independence while remaining dissatisfied with everyday affordability. For households balancing mortgages, groceries, utilities, and other essential expenses, international leadership does not automatically translate into financial relief.
North American Trade Rules Face a New Test
Canada’s economic dependence on the United States helps explain why the future of North American trade has become such a prominent public concern. Statistics Canada reported that 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025, down from 75.9% in 2024. Although the decline suggests some movement toward other markets, the American economy remains central to Canadian exporters. For an auto-parts manufacturer in Ontario or a food producer selling across the border, uncertainty about tariffs can complicate decisions about hiring, equipment purchases, and long-term investment.
The Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement, known in Canada as CUSMA, entered into force in July 2020. During its scheduled review on July 1, 2026, the United States declined to extend the agreement in its existing form. Crucially, that decision did not terminate CUSMA. The agreement remains in force, with further reviews possible and a scheduled expiry in 2036 unless its term is extended or it ends earlier under its provisions. For Canadian businesses, however, continued legal protection does not eliminate uncertainty. Negotiators must still resolve disagreements that could influence investment decisions for years.
Age and Geography Reveal Different Political Priorities
Concern about Washington is not distributed evenly across Canada’s population. Research Co.’s November polling found that 38% of Canadians aged 55 and older identified Canada–U.S. relations as the country’s most important issue, compared with 19% of those aged 18 to 34. Regionally, the issue was mentioned by 33% of Quebec respondents, compared with 17% in Atlantic Canada. These differences suggest that the prominence of American trade policy depends partly on where Canadians live and which economic challenges affect them most directly.
The generational divide also appeared in separate Abacus Data findings released ahead of the federal budget. Among adults under 30, 45% selected housing affordability as one of their three leading concerns, compared with 23% of those aged 60 and older. The pattern reversed for Trump and his administration, identified by 23% of younger adults and 53% of respondents aged 60 and above. The polls used different questions and therefore should not be treated as directly interchangeable. Together, however, they highlight a political challenge: Carney must address international economic uncertainty without losing sight of younger Canadians struggling to secure housing and stable employment.
Canadians Support a Firm Response but Still Want Progress
Public concern about tariffs does not necessarily translate into support for making concessions to Washington. An Angus Reid Institute poll conducted in September found that 73% of Canadians believed the country should refuse difficult concessions even if doing so worsened relations with the United States. The same research found that 60% said they would maintain that position in a hypothetical scenario where household expenses increased by 20%. These responses demonstrate considerable support for defending Canadian interests, although stated willingness to accept hypothetical costs does not establish how households would react if those costs actually materialized.
More recent polling suggests that Canadians also see opportunities for negotiations to improve. Following the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections, Léger found that 72% considered the results good news for Canada, while 48% believed they would make favourable trade negotiations easier. Only 7% expected talks to become more difficult. Those expectations do not guarantee a breakthrough, particularly because the Trump administration continues to direct American trade policy. For Carney, the challenge is to maintain a credible negotiating position while demonstrating progress toward reduced uncertainty and more dependable market access.
Canada’s Long-Term Economic Future May Depend on Diversification
The political debate is increasingly about more than surviving the current confrontation with Trump. An Abacus Data study released November 2 found that 64% of Canadians believed the country should build its economy on the assumption that its relationship with the United States would not return to its previous form. Only 26% preferred patience while waiting for American politics to change. Support for adapting to a different economic relationship reached 71% among Liberal voters, suggesting that many Carney supporters favour a lasting shift in economic strategy rather than a temporary response to tariffs.
There are signs that Canadian exporters are already reaching further beyond the American market. Statistics Canada reported that merchandise exports to countries other than the United States increased 17.2% in 2025. Nevertheless, the concentration of Canadian exports in the American market means diversification will require sustained investment, reliable transportation infrastructure, and stronger commercial relationships abroad. The political implications are equally important. Carney’s advantage on Canada–U.S. relations gives his government considerable public support, but maintaining that confidence will depend on measurable economic results. For Canadians concerned about jobs, household expenses, and the country’s independence, the ultimate test will be whether Canada emerges from this period with greater stability and more economic options.
