A housing crisis can feel intensely personal, but Canadians are increasingly looking beyond their front doors when they consider the country’s biggest challenge. A new Research Co. poll released November 12, 2026, puts Canada–U.S. relations ahead of housing, jobs and health care as the issue most likely to be named first.
The shift comes amid tariff disputes and uncertainty surrounding North America’s trade agreement, bringing decisions made in Washington closer to Canadian workplaces and household budgets. Yet the results tell a more complicated story than a country suddenly losing interest in affordability. Different age groups, regions and polling questions reveal priorities that continue to overlap.
A Sharp Reversal in Canada’s Priorities
In the Research Co. findings, 26% of Canadians identified Canada–U.S. relations as the country’s single most important issue. Housing, homelessness and poverty followed at 19%, while the economy and jobs stood at 18%. Health care registered 12% and immigration 8%. Those figures represent which concern came first for respondents, not the proportion who care about each problem. A household may be anxious about rent, groceries and trade policy simultaneously, even if only one of those concerns is recorded as its leading priority.
The change since August is striking. The share selecting bilateral relations climbed from 12% to 26%, a 14-percentage-point jump. Housing slipped from 23% to 19%, and the economy and jobs declined from 25% to 18%. The pollster says the U.S. relationship had not topped its issue rankings since July 2025, when it registered 22%. Research Co. president Mario Canseco pointed to Canadian interest in the U.S. midterm elections, although the results cannot establish what caused individual respondents to change their answers. What is clear is the speed with which the national agenda has been reordered.
Housing Has Slipped in Rank, Not in Urgency
The new ranking should not be mistaken for evidence that Canadians have solved their housing problems. Nearly one in five respondents still named housing, homelessness and poverty as the top national issue. The detailed results show an especially sharp contrast between generations: 26% of adults aged 18 to 34 put that category first, compared with 12% of those aged 55 and older. For someone trying to save a down payment or manage rent while building a career, affordability remains a daily calculation, regardless of the latest diplomatic confrontation.
The underlying shortage is substantial. In September, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation estimated that the country needs roughly 417,000 to 469,000 housing starts annually to restore pre-pandemic affordability by 2036, far above its projected construction pace. CMHC warned that slower homebuilding could undermine recent affordability improvements, particularly as ownership-oriented construction weakens. Rental conditions have become more balanced in some markets, but that is not the same as providing enough homes for would-be buyers. Housing may have lost the top position in one poll without losing any of its long-term economic or social significance.
Older Canadians Are Watching Washington More Closely
Age is one of the clearest dividing lines in the poll. Among respondents aged 55 and older, 38% chose Canada–U.S. relations as the biggest national concern. The equivalent figure was 21% among those aged 35 to 54 and 19% among adults aged 18 to 34. The generational breakdown tells a similar story: 39% of baby boomers selected the bilateral relationship, compared with 18% of millennials. These differences help explain how an international dispute can top the national list while younger Canadians continue to emphasize housing.
The poll does not ask people to explain why they made their choices, so it would be misleading to assign a single motive to any age group. Still, the contrast is easy to recognize in everyday life. An established homeowner may be especially attentive to the economic stability supporting retirement savings, while a younger renter may be focused on the next lease renewal. Both can be concerned about tariffs and employment. They simply encounter uncertainty at different points in their financial lives, and their answers reflect the issue occupying the most space at that moment.
Concern Varies Widely From Province to Province
The regional breakdown also resists a one-size-fits-all explanation. Canada–U.S. relations ranked as the leading issue for 33% of respondents in Quebec and 28% in Ontario. It was selected by 26% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba combined, 21% in Alberta, 20% in British Columbia and 17% in Atlantic Canada. Those figures illustrate a common national concern expressed with very different intensity. They should be interpreted cautiously, however, because each regional subgroup is smaller than the full national sample.
An international trade dispute can land differently depending on the local economy. For an auto-parts employee in southern Ontario, the immediate question may be whether orders and shifts will hold steady. A family elsewhere may feel the pressure more through prices, housing or the availability of services. Such examples illustrate possible channels of concern; the poll itself does not identify the reasons behind each region’s results. It does show why federal leaders face a difficult communications challenge: the same Canada–U.S. headline can produce different priorities across the country.
Trade Numbers Explain Why Diplomacy Feels Personal
Canada’s economic connection to the United States is large enough to make foreign policy an everyday concern. Statistics Canada reports that 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025, down from 75.9% in 2024. In September 2026, shipments to countries other than the United States accounted for just 29.8% of the total. Even after some diversification, approximately seven out of every ten dollars in exported goods depended on the American market. That reliance makes changes in border rules consequential well beyond Ottawa’s negotiating teams.
The effects can reach households through ordinary business decisions. A manufacturer facing uncertain access to U.S. buyers must consider prices, inventory and future investment; those choices can eventually influence hiring or overtime. Statistics Canada’s September report showed exports of motor vehicles and parts falling 4.9% from August, alongside a 9.8% decline in forestry products and building and packaging materials. Those monthly movements have several possible causes and cannot all be attributed to tariffs. Nevertheless, they offer a reminder that bilateral relations are not an abstract question when livelihoods are connected to cross-border demand.
Trade Agreement Uncertainty Adds Another Layer
The future of the North American trade framework is unsettled, but the agreement has not disappeared. At the July 1, 2026, joint review, the United States declined to extend the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement in its existing form. The U.S. Trade Representative explicitly stated that the agreement remains in force. That distinction matters: a refusal to extend its term is not equivalent to an immediate shutdown of preferential trade. The three countries still operate under an existing framework while the dispute over its future continues.
Uncertainty has nevertheless increased. In October, the Bank of Canada said most bilateral trade remained tariff-free, while new measures and failed negotiations had pushed its assumed average U.S. tariff rate on Canadian goods to 7.5%, from 5.0% in July. The U.S. has also opened consultations for the 2027 annual review, with comments due January 12, 2027. For businesses deciding whether to expand a factory or sign a long-term supply contract, that calendar matters. An agreement can remain legally active while companies are uncertain about the rules they will face next year.
Carney’s Political Advantage Is Real but Conditional
The same Research Co. poll suggests Prime Minister Mark Carney enters this period with an advantage over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Sixty-two percent approved of Carney’s performance, up three points since August, while 40% approved of Poilievre’s work as opposition leader. Asked who would make the best prime minister, 46% chose Carney and 22% selected Poilievre. In federal voting intention, the Liberals held 47% of decided voters against 28% for the Conservatives. These are measures of different things, and none is a prediction of an election result.
Foreign relations may be helping shape perceptions of leadership, but the poll does not prove that the rise in concern caused the Liberal lead. Research Co. found Carney ahead when respondents compared the two leaders’ ability to handle a range of issues, including foreign affairs and Canada–U.S. relations. That provides him room to present trade policy as part of his government’s central mandate. It also raises expectations. A prime minister judged better equipped to manage a difficult relationship may eventually be assessed not only on reassurance, but on concrete results for workers, businesses and consumers.
Canadians Have Not Stopped Worrying About Their Bills
A separate Abacus Data poll released November 8 offers an important counterweight to the headline finding. Asked to select three major national concerns rather than one, 63% of Canadians picked the rising cost of living. The economy and Donald Trump and his administration were tied at 38%, while housing affordability and accessibility reached 32%. That does not contradict Research Co.’s result. It shows how the ordering changes when people are allowed to acknowledge several pressures instead of naming only the one that comes first.
The same Abacus poll found that just 29% approved of the federal government’s handling of the cost of living and inflation, while 54% approved of its management of relations with the United States. That gap creates a political tension: confidence in the government’s international approach does not automatically translate into confidence about household finances. Consider a family whose income depends on exports but whose rent has risen faster than its earnings. Tariff stability could be important to its long-term security, yet financial relief at home may remain its most immediate test of government performance.
What the New Poll Can—and Cannot—Tell Ottawa
Research Co. interviewed 1,002 Canadian adults online between November 2 and November 4, 2026, and weighted the results by age, gender and region using census benchmarks. The firm reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. As with any poll, the precise figures are estimates rather than a census of opinion; weighting does not eliminate every potential source of error. Results for smaller demographic and regional groups deserve additional caution, especially when the differences between them are modest.
The most important limitation is conceptual. Choosing the single biggest issue does not mean dismissing all the others, and polling snapshots do not establish what will dominate Canadian opinion months from now. The November numbers reveal that external economic uncertainty has become unusually prominent in the public conversation. For Ottawa, the challenge is to respond without treating housing, health care and affordability as yesterday’s problems. The next test is whether policymakers can make the connection between trade negotiations abroad and financial security at home credible to Canadians whose circumstances differ sharply.
