Canada’s relationship with the United States has long been built around unusually deep economic, cultural and security ties. New national polling, however, captures how sharply the public mood has changed during a period of tariffs, sovereignty disputes and persistent affordability concerns.
Lord Ashcroft Polls found that 51% of Canadian adults now describe the United States as an adversary or threat, while only 25% call it a friend or ally. At the same time, 45% say they are financially worse off than they were a year earlier, compared with just 17% who feel better off. The results point to two pressures unfolding at once: growing distrust of Canada’s largest trading partner and continued anxiety about household finances at home.
The Poll Reached More Than 10,000 Canadian Adults
Lord Ashcroft Polls interviewed 10,098 adults across Canada online between July 31 and August 17, 2026. The results were weighted to represent Canadian adults nationally. The research was supplemented by 16 focus groups conducted in British Columbia, Alberta, Quebec and Ontario, involving participants from different political, social and ethnic backgrounds and both English- and French-speaking Canadians.
That timing is important. The numbers provide a detailed snapshot of Canadian attitudes during a specific period of heightened Canada-U.S. tension rather than a measurement taken in early October. Public opinion can move as negotiations, tariffs, prices and political events change. Still, the unusually large sample gives the research considerable ability to examine differences among age groups, past voters and other demographic categories instead of relying only on one national headline figure.
Canada’s View of the United States Has Changed Dramatically
The 51% figure looks even more striking when compared with Ashcroft’s earlier polling. In 2022, 73% of Canadians classified the United States as a friend or ally while 23% regarded it as an adversary or threat. Four years later, those proportions have effectively reversed direction: 51% now choose adversary or threat and just 25% choose friend or ally.
The United States was not viewed as negatively as Russia or Iran, which registered adversary-or-threat readings of 63% and 54%, respectively. But its position was dramatically different from countries such as the United Kingdom, Australia and France, which were identified as friends or allies by 79%, 76% and 73% of respondents. The comparison illustrates why the U.S. result is notable: Canada’s largest economic partner is being placed psychologically in a very different category from several of its other longstanding allies.
The U.S. Numbers Hide Major Differences Between Canadians
Attitudes toward the United States were far from uniform. Women rated the U.S. as an adversary or threat over friend or ally by a 41-point margin, compared with an 11-point margin among men. Age produced another substantial divide. Respondents aged 65 and older leaned toward the adversary-or-threat description by 47 points, while the margin among those aged 25 to 34 was only nine points.
Political history produced some of the widest differences. People who reported voting Conservative in 2025 were the only major voter group more likely to classify the United States as a friend or ally than an adversary or threat, although only by four percentage points. Among 2025 Liberal voters, adversary-or-threat responses exceeded friend-or-ally responses by 47 points. Those variations matter because a national figure such as 51% can otherwise make Canadian opinion appear considerably more homogeneous than it actually is.
Nearly Half Say Their Own Finances Have Deteriorated
The foreign-policy findings arrived alongside a significant measure of economic dissatisfaction. Asked whether they were financially better or worse off than a year earlier, 45% said worse off, 37% said about the same and 17% said better off. Canadians aged 45 to 54 recorded one of the highest worse-off readings at 52%. Among respondents aged 65 and older, 39% said worse off while 48% reported being about the same.
Official inflation data provides useful context without necessarily explaining each respondent’s answer. Statistics Canada reported that consumer prices were 3.0% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier. Grocery prices rose 2.8%, shelter costs increased 1.5%, and the transportation component was up 7.5%. A household can therefore experience continuing pressure even when inflation is well below its earlier peaks because the inflation rate measures how quickly prices are changing, not whether earlier price increases have disappeared.
Cost of Living Still Matters More Than the Trade Fight
Despite the striking numbers concerning the United States, international tensions were not Canadians’ biggest day-to-day priority. When respondents were asked to identify the most important issues facing Canada, 60% selected the cost of living. Healthcare followed at 35%, the economy and jobs at 29%, housing at 28%, and trade and tariffs with the United States at 24%.
That distinction helps explain why dissatisfaction with personal finances and anxiety over Washington can exist simultaneously without being the same issue. A household worried about mortgage payments, grocery bills or transportation costs may also be concerned about tariffs, but immediate expenses can carry greater personal weight. The poll found cost of living ranked first across every major age group shown. Women selected it somewhat more frequently than men, 64% to 56%, while the relative importance of healthcare, housing, immigration and trade varied more noticeably across demographic and political groups.
Canadians Are More Optimistic About Themselves Than the Country
The economic mood becomes more complicated when respondents are asked about the future rather than the past. Looking at Canada as a whole, 49% expected the economy to fare badly over the next year while 40% expected it to fare well. When the same people were asked about how economic conditions would affect them personally, however, the balance reversed: 48% expected things to go well for them and 41% expected them to go badly.
That gap is useful when interpreting the 45% worse-off number. Canadians can believe that their finances deteriorated during the previous year while still expecting some improvement ahead. It also shows why measures of economic sentiment are sensitive to the exact question being asked. Assessments of past household circumstances, expectations about personal finances and opinions about the national economy measure related but different experiences. Treating any one of them as a complete picture would lose that distinction.
The U.S. Dispute Is Also Shaping Domestic Political Attitudes
The Ashcroft research recorded significant differences in how respondents viewed Canada’s political parties and leaders during the polling period. Mark Carney received a positive rating from 60% and a negative rating from 35% of respondents. Pierre Poilievre received a positive rating from 43% and a negative rating from 50%. The Liberal Party itself registered 55% positive and 40% negative, while the Conservatives recorded 49% positive and 45% negative.
Issue-specific measurements were more mixed. Respondents gave the Liberals a 12-point advantage when asked which party would do the best job handling relations with the United States, while the Conservatives recorded advantages of three points on the cost of living and two points on housing. The economy was comparatively close, with a four-point Liberal advantage. Those are dated polling measurements rather than judgments about which party would actually produce better outcomes.
Economic Dependence Has Not Disappeared With Political Distrust
The change in public attitudes is particularly significant because the Canadian and U.S. economies remain deeply connected. Statistics Canada reported that Canadian merchandise exports to the United States fell 6.6% in July 2026, while imports from the U.S. increased 1.8%. Canada’s monthly merchandise trade surplus with the United States consequently narrowed from $10.3 billion in June to $5.9 billion in July.
At the same time, diversification was becoming more visible. Canadian exports to countries other than the United States increased 7.4% in July to a record $25.6 billion, representing 33.7% of Canadian merchandise exports that month. That still left the U.S. accounting for roughly two-thirds of the total. The figures underline the unusual nature of the moment: Canadian public distrust can rise rapidly, but decades of integrated supply chains, energy flows and cross-border commerce cannot be unwound nearly as quickly.
A Large Majority Wants Ottawa to Stand Up to Washington
Ashcroft also asked respondents to make a forced choice between a government that “stands up” to the United States and one that seeks accommodation with it. Nationwide, 72% selected standing up to Washington and 28% preferred accommodation. The preference crossed the major party groups included in the report, though by considerably different margins.
Among people who reported voting Liberal in 2025, the split was 82% to 18%. It was 60% to 40% among Conservative voters, 65% to 35% among Bloc Québécois voters and 88% to 12% among NDP voters. Because respondents were required to choose between only two alternatives, the result should be interpreted according to that wording rather than as evidence that all 72% favour the same specific trade or diplomatic policies. It does show that accommodation was the minority response within every major voter group measured.
Canadians Expect the Relationship to Matter Beyond Trump
The polling suggests the shift is not being viewed entirely as a short-term dispute tied to one U.S. administration. Respondents were asked to think ahead to Canada’s next federal election, with the question framing Donald Trump’s presidency as having ended by that point. Forty-two per cent said managing relations with the United States would become even more important in deciding their vote, while another 40% expected it to remain about as important as it is now.
Only 13% expected the issue to become less important, while 6% said they did not know. Focus-group responses contained differing explanations, including concerns about U.S. political volatility, Canadian economic dependence and the possibility that tensions could survive a change of president. Those comments are qualitative rather than representative national measurements, but combined with the quantitative result they show that many respondents were thinking about the bilateral relationship beyond the immediate tariff dispute.
The 51% Figure Is Significant, but It Needs Context
Independent polling points in a similar direction, though the questions are not directly interchangeable. Angus Reid Institute research conducted in July 2026 found that a majority of Canadians believed Canada should approach the United States with caution or suspicion, as a potential threat or enemy. Yet 45% still reported a favourable view of American people, compared with 48% who viewed Americans unfavourably. Meanwhile, 79% of Americans in Angus Reid’s U.S. sample viewed Canadians favourably.
That distinction matters. Views of the U.S. government, the bilateral relationship and individual Americans are not necessarily the same thing. Methodology matters too: Ashcroft’s 10,098 interviews were conducted online and weighted to represent Canadian adults. Large samples allow detailed subgroup analysis, but sample size alone does not eliminate possible effects from recruitment, weighting, timing or question wording. Polling is therefore most useful as evidence of the public mood during a defined period—not as a permanent description of every Canadian’s views.
