Canada has spent years trying to convince global capital that it offers more than natural resources and proximity to the United States. New research from the CPP Investments Insights Institute suggests much of that convincing has already happened. Among major developed markets examined, 94% of global institutional investors expect to maintain or increase their Canadian exposure over the next three years, compared with 77% for the United States and 82% for Japan.
The numbers put Canada in an unusually strong position at a time when capital is becoming more selective. Yet confidence is only the starting point. Investors are also demanding large opportunities, predictable rules, competitive returns and projects capable of moving from proposal to construction. Canada’s challenge is therefore shifting: less about earning trust, and more about turning that trust into actual investment.
Canada Leads the “Stay-or-Grow” Ranking
Canada recorded the strongest investor-retention result among the eight developed markets examined by CPP Investments. Ninety-four percent of respondents said they expect to either maintain or increase their exposure to Canadian assets over the next three years. Japan ranked next at 82%, while the United States came third at 77%. That gives Canada a 17-percentage-point advantage over the U.S. on this particular measure, an unusually wide gap considering the enormous size and depth of American capital markets.
There is an important distinction, however. The 94% figure does not mean 94% of investors are preparing to pour additional money into Canada. It combines investors planning to increase exposure with those intending simply to maintain their existing positions. That makes the result better understood as a measure of retention and confidence rather than a forecast of capital inflows. Even with that qualification, having only a small minority considering reduced exposure gives Canada a valuable starting position in the global competition for long-term money.
The Investors Behind the Numbers Control Enormous Pools of Capital
The scale of the institutions included in the research helps explain why the results matter beyond financial-market sentiment. CPP Investments drew insights from 65 senior investment professionals located across 20 countries. Collectively, their organizations manage approximately US$65 trillion in assets, an amount the institute estimates represents roughly one-third of global assets under management.
Participants came from pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, asset managers and other institutional investors operating across both public and private markets. These are organizations that can finance infrastructure, energy systems, corporate expansion, real estate and private businesses over periods stretching decades. The research is still a study of a defined group rather than a census of every global investor, so its percentages should not be treated as universal. But the capital represented by the participants gives their preferences considerable economic weight. A single infrastructure allocation from a major pension or sovereign fund can be measured in hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.
Investors Still Put Opportunity Ahead of Everything Else
Trust matters, but the research makes clear that investors are not allocating capital primarily because they like a country’s political image. Market opportunity was identified as the leading factor influencing where global capital goes, cited by 80% of respondents. Regulatory efficiency and predictability followed at 72%, while policy stability was cited by 69%.
That hierarchy helps explain both Canada’s strength and its remaining challenge. An investment committee assessing a Canadian power project, mine or technology platform still needs an attractive expected return relative to the risks involved. The CPP work identifies unattractive risk-adjusted returns, potential policy reversals and regulatory uncertainty among the barriers capable of keeping money on the sidelines. In practical terms, a stable country with no sufficiently profitable projects can lose capital to a less comfortable market offering stronger opportunities. Canada therefore cannot rely on reputation alone. Investor confidence must be paired with commercially competitive projects that can survive rigorous financial analysis.
Predictability Has Become One of Canada’s Most Valuable Assets
CPP Investments found Canada is particularly valued for policy stability, regulatory predictability and openness to international capital. The country also ranked second only to the United States for access to sophisticated local investment partners. Those qualities can matter enormously to investors making commitments that may remain in place for 20, 30 or even 50 years.
For a long-term infrastructure owner, an unexpected regulatory change can alter decades of projected cash flow. A mine developer needs confidence that permitting requirements will not change unpredictably after major capital has already been committed. A foreign pension fund entering a new market may also prefer to invest alongside experienced domestic partners who understand local regulations, financing structures and government relationships. Canada’s institutional ecosystem therefore offers something difficult to reproduce quickly: familiarity and credibility. The challenge identified by CPP Investments is that this institutional trust still needs to be matched with enough projects of sufficient size to absorb the enormous pools of money searching for long-duration investments.
AI Is Turning Electricity and Infrastructure Into Investment Themes
Digital and artificial-intelligence infrastructure was the strongest global investment theme identified in the CPP research, selected by 65% of respondents. Energy followed at 43%, technology and semiconductors at 42%, and defence at 35%. Rather than viewing those industries independently, investors increasingly see them as pieces of the same physical infrastructure system.
A large AI data centre illustrates the connection. Servers require enormous amounts of dependable electricity. Additional generation may require new transmission lines and substations. Those networks depend on metals, transformers and equipment, while semiconductor manufacturing requires specialized materials and secure supply chains. The Bank of Canada has separately found that AI adoption by Canadian businesses remains relatively early, yet about 30% of businesses expected AI to increase their capital spending over the subsequent 12 months. That combination creates an investment opportunity extending well beyond software companies. The AI buildout increasingly touches utilities, construction, mining, industrial equipment, grids and real estate.
Canada’s Resource Base Fits the New Capital Cycle
Canada enters this investment cycle with assets that overlap closely with the sectors global institutions are watching. Federal data show the country produces more than 60 minerals and metals from more than 200 operating mines. Ottawa has also been expanding its critical-minerals strategy, including more than $3.6 billion in programs and investments announced in March 2026 to accelerate development from mining through processing and supply chains.
Electricity is another potential advantage. Statistics Canada reported that hydroelectricity generated 54.9% of Canadian electricity in 2025, while nuclear supplied 13% and wind and solar together supplied another 9%. Federal estimates put the broader share of non-emitting electricity at roughly four-fifths of total generation. Those characteristics become more commercially significant as data centres and advanced manufacturing search for large quantities of reliable power. Resources alone do not guarantee investment, however. Mines, transmission projects and generating facilities require permitting, infrastructure connections, financing and customers before geological or energy advantages become investable assets.
Foreign Investment in Canada Is Already at a Massive Scale
The CPP findings arrive on top of a substantial existing base of international investment. Statistics Canada reported that foreign direct investment in Canada reached C$1.6005 trillion at the end of 2025. That was an increase of C$103 billion, or 6.9%, compared with the previous year.
The increase was not limited to one corner of the economy. Foreign investment in services-producing industries rose to C$1.1297 trillion, while the stock invested in goods-producing industries reached C$470.8 billion. Manufacturing recorded a C$14 billion increase during 2025, and mining, oil and gas added C$11.5 billion. Reinvested earnings from existing foreign-owned Canadian businesses also contributed to the overall growth. That detail matters because foreign investment is not only about a multinational announcing a new factory. Companies already operating in Canada can choose to reinvest profits, expand facilities, buy competitors or add production. The 94% CPP figure therefore sits on top of an already substantial network of long-term foreign corporate relationships.
Being Ahead of the U.S. Does Not Mean Capital Is Leaving America for Canada
The comparison with the United States is eye-catching, but the financial relationship between the two countries remains deeply intertwined. U.S. direct investors held C$737.3 billion in Canada at the end of 2025, according to Statistics Canada, representing 46.1% of all foreign direct investment stock in the country. European investors accounted for another C$529.8 billion, or 33.1%.
Capital also moves heavily in the opposite direction. Canadian direct investment in the United States stood at approximately C$1.2034 trillion at the end of 2025, accounting for 49.5% of Canada’s total outward direct-investment position. The CPP ranking therefore should not be interpreted as evidence that Canada is replacing the United States in institutional portfolios. The U.S. remains vastly larger and central to Canadian companies and investors. Instead, the 94%-versus-77% result shows that Canada currently has an unusually strong retention profile among the institutions examined. Investors can maintain major U.S. allocations while simultaneously deciding that Canadian exposure deserves preservation or expansion.
Canada’s Biggest Problem May Be Turning Interest Into Projects
CPP Investments repeatedly distinguishes between a market that investors trust and one capable of absorbing institutional capital at scale. Canada performs strongly on confidence, but the research warns that capital still requires projects large enough, financially attractive enough and sufficiently advanced to justify deployment. The institute points to clear project pipelines, predictable regulation, revenue certainty, effective risk-sharing and institutional-scale structures as ways to improve investibility.
That message is consistent with broader business conditions. The Bank of Canada’s second-quarter 2026 Business Outlook Survey found that investment intentions among Canadian firms remained at a high level, with productivity investments, equipment upgrades and AI integration more prevalent than in recent years. At the same time, soft demand and lingering uncertainty continued to restrain some companies. For large global investors, similar caution can become magnified. A pension fund may have billions available, but it cannot invest those billions merely because Canada is attractive. It needs projects with defined economics, realistic timelines and manageable risks.
The Next Test Comes When Investment Intentions Meet Real Deals
The timing of the CPP research is deliberate. Toronto is scheduled to host the Canada Investment Summit on September 14 and 15, bringing together global investors, Canadian business leaders and public-sector representatives. The federal government says its broader economic strategy aims to catalyse C$1 trillion in total investment over five years, making the ability to convert international interest into transactions central to that ambition.
CPP Investments itself illustrates the scale of the institutions involved. The organization managed C$863.6 billion as of June 30, 2026 and invests globally on behalf of more than 22 million Canada Pension Plan contributors and beneficiaries. Funds operating at that scale generally need opportunities measured in hundreds of millions or billions rather than small projects assembled one at a time. That is why the 94% figure is best viewed as an opening rather than a victory. Canada appears to have earned investor confidence. The more consequential question is whether it can produce enough profitable, executable projects to give that capital somewhere to go
