The political relationship between Washington and Ottawa has become increasingly confrontational, but beneath the tariff announcements, the energy relationship remains remarkably difficult to separate. A new analysis of U.S. International Trade Commission data shows Canada accounted for 57.3% of the customs value of U.S. crude-oil imports and 66% of petroleum-gas imports over the 2016–2025 period. Those figures are historical, decade-long shares rather than a single-year snapshot, yet newer physical-volume data point in the same direction. In 2025, Canada supplied 63.4% of U.S. crude-oil imports and nearly all American natural-gas imports. As tariffs expand across other industries, pipelines, refinery configurations and geography continue to bind the two economies together in ways that cannot easily be rewritten by a trade proclamation.
The 57% and 66% Figures Measure a Decade of Dependence
The headline numbers come from an American Action Forum analysis of U.S. International Trade Commission customs data covering 2016 through 2025. Over that decade, Canadian crude oil accounted for 57.3% of the customs value of all U.S. imports in the crude-petroleum category. Canadian shipments in that category were valued at roughly US$705.8 billion. Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons from Canada were valued at about US$103.9 billion and represented 66% of U.S. imports in that category.
That distinction matters because customs value is not the same thing as the percentage of barrels or cubic feet physically imported in a particular year. Commodity prices rise and fall dramatically, which can change dollar shares without an equivalent change in volumes. The petroleum-gas category is also broader than pipeline natural gas alone. Still, the decade-long numbers illustrate something important: Canadian energy is not a marginal supplement to American supply. It has represented a major share of U.S. energy imports through multiple administrations, oil-price cycles and trade-policy changes.
The Latest Volume Data Show an Even Deeper Physical Connection
Looking only at 2025 makes the physical relationship even clearer. The Canada Energy Regulator reported that Canada supplied 63.4% of the crude oil imported into the United States that year. It also provided nearly all U.S. natural-gas imports, 97.9% of imported natural gas liquids and 81.3% of imported electricity. Canadian crude, refined products, natural gas and natural gas liquids exported to the United States were worth C$157.5 billion in 2025.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration recorded Canadian crude imports averaging about 3.9 million barrels per day in 2025. Despite that enormous flow, the total was about 4% lower than in 2024 as more Canadian crude gained access to Pacific export markets. The broader picture remains striking: even while both governments explore different trading relationships, energy continues moving across the border on a scale built up over decades. For households and businesses, that integration is mostly invisible. The connection becomes far more obvious when a pipeline outage, refinery problem or sudden policy change tightens regional fuel markets.
Midwest Refineries Are Closely Tied to Canadian Heavy Crude
American dependence on Canadian oil is not distributed evenly across the country. It is concentrated particularly heavily in the Midwest, where EIA data show refineries received about 2.75 million barrels per day of Canadian crude in 2025. That represented the majority of the roughly 3.9 million barrels per day imported from Canada nationwide. The region includes major refining centres in states such as Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio.
There is a technical reason those barrels are valuable. Much of the crude produced from Alberta’s oil sands is relatively heavy, and many sophisticated U.S. refineries have invested in equipment capable of processing heavy crude efficiently. EIA has repeatedly noted that complex American refineries tend to prefer grades such as those produced in Canada. Replacing those barrels is therefore not simply a matter of substituting an equal quantity of light U.S. shale oil. Different crude grades have different properties, transportation routes and refinery requirements. That physical reality helps explain why Canadian crude has retained such a large American market even during periods of political tension.
Natural Gas Is Connected by Pipelines in Both Directions
The petroleum-gas figure in the trade analysis is broad, but pipeline natural gas demonstrates the cross-border connection particularly well. U.S. natural-gas imports from Canada averaged 8.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, according to the EIA, up about 1% from the previous year. Almost all American pipeline gas imports came from Canada. Most of those flows entered through western and central portions of the border, feeding markets connected to western Canadian production.
The relationship also runs the other way. The United States exported about 2.8 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas to Canada in 2025, with northeastern U.S. supplies frequently moving into Ontario. Canada imported 92.4% of its natural gas from the United States that year, even while remaining a major net exporter overall. This seemingly contradictory pattern is a product of geography and pipeline infrastructure. Western Canada sends huge volumes south, while central and eastern Canadian markets can find nearby American supplies economical. The result is less like two isolated national markets and more like a regional network crossing the border repeatedly.
The Latest Tariff Escalation Has Largely Spared Energy
The trade conflict has intensified sharply outside the energy sector. The United States imposed 50% tariffs on roughly US$20 billion of Canadian goods in August after negotiations broke down, while Canadian retaliatory tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% took effect September 8. Ottawa’s latest countermeasures cover C$27.6 billion of U.S. imports, targeting categories including steel, dairy products, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.
Energy, however, received different treatment. The White House’s July 2026 description of the latest Section 338 measures explicitly stated that those 50% tariffs would not apply to energy. That does not mean every Canadian energy shipment has always crossed the border without additional duties: EIA notes that earlier tariff measures included a 10% levy on Canadian energy, while some qualifying trade could receive USMCA treatment. The important distinction is that Washington did not extend its newest 50% tariff escalation to energy. Given the sheer volume of crude and gas involved, that exemption keeps one of the largest cross-border supply relationships outside the most aggressive current measures.
Energy Helps Explain the Persistent U.S. Goods Deficit With Canada
Trade-deficit arguments are central to the political dispute, but the composition of the numbers matters. U.S. Census Bureau data show the United States imported about US$381.9 billion in goods from Canada in 2025 while exporting about US$333.6 billion, producing a US$48.3 billion goods deficit. At the same time, the United States ran a substantial services surplus with Canada, estimated by the U.S. Trade Representative at US$27.7 billion.
Energy plays an outsized role in the goods side of the relationship. EIA estimates total U.S.-Canada energy trade was worth about US$137 billion in 2025. Of that, US$111 billion consisted of U.S. energy imports from Canada, compared with US$26 billion of American energy exports northward. Crude oil alone represented 69% of total bilateral energy-trade value. That helps explain why the goods balance can look heavily tilted toward Canada without necessarily reflecting the same imbalance across every industry. The United States is deliberately importing millions of barrels of Canadian crude each day because its refining and pipeline system has long been structured to use it.
Canada Is Beginning to Create More Alternatives to the U.S. Market
Canada’s dependence on American energy customers is also substantial, but it has started to loosen at the margins. In 2025, 90.8% of the hydrocarbons Canada exported still went to the United States. That was down from 94.4% in 2024. The Trans Mountain Expansion has been one of the biggest reasons Canadian producers have gained another option, carrying crude to British Columbia’s Pacific coast where tankers can reach customers in Asia as well as the U.S. West Coast.
EIA attributed part of the 4% drop in U.S. crude imports from Canada in 2025 to increased utilization of the expanded Trans Mountain system. Natural gas is beginning a similar shift. LNG Canada started exports from Kitimat, British Columbia, in June 2025, allowing Western Canadian gas to reach East Asian buyers directly. The Canada Energy Regulator calculated LNG Canada exports at an average 0.295 billion cubic feet per day across the full year, despite operations starting midway through it. These volumes remain modest beside established U.S.-bound flows, but they demonstrate that diversification is no longer purely theoretical.
Decades of Infrastructure Make a Rapid Energy Divorce Difficult
The deepest obstacle to separating the two energy economies is physical infrastructure. Canada and the United States are connected by dozens of pipelines carrying crude, natural gas, natural gas liquids and refined fuels, while 86 international power lines connect their electricity systems. In 2025, Canada sent 90.8% of its hydrocarbon exports to the United States, but the dependency was not entirely one-sided: 83.8% of the hydrocarbons Canada imported came from the U.S.
That integration explains why energy has continued to receive different treatment even as tariff retaliation spreads elsewhere. A refinery designed around heavy crude cannot instantly redesign itself around another feedstock, just as a pipeline serving a specific region cannot be redirected across an ocean. Canada is gradually building more export options, and U.S. producers continue to expand their own output and export capacity. Yet the existing system still reflects decades of investment made on the assumption of a closely connected North American market. The trade war can alter prices, incentives and investment decisions quickly; changing that physical network is a much slower process.
