Canadian voices are becoming easier to hear again in parts of Maine’s tourism economy. In Old Orchard Beach, some shop and café operators reported more customers from north of the border this summer, offering relief after the disruption of 2025. National travel data also show Canadians making more U.S. trips than a year earlier.
But a rebound from a depressed year is not a return to normal. Maine’s June border-traffic figures remained below their 2024 benchmark, and the latest Canadian numbers still show a substantial two-year shortfall. The travel pullback is easing, but that does not establish that the political boycott has ended. For businesses hoping to rebuild their Canadian customer base, the difference between improvement and recovery remains important.
The National Numbers Are Improving, but the Gap Remains
Statistics Canada’s July 2026 figures put Canadian-resident return trips from the United States at 2.8 million, up 10.1% from July 2025. It was the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year growth after 15 months of declines. That is a meaningful change in direction: the countrywide pullback is no longer producing an uninterrupted series of worse results. Nevertheless, July’s total remained 25.6% below July 2024, leaving roughly one-quarter of the earlier travel volume missing.
August’s preliminary figures extended the improvement, with return trips by air and automobile rising 8.8% from a year earlier. Yet automobile trips were still 27.4% below August 2024, while air trips remained 22.7% lower. These are national figures, not a measurement of Maine alone, and Statistics Canada cautions that expanded border-data coverage affects comparisons. Even with those qualifications, the broad message is consistent: Canadians are travelling south more often than during last year’s slump, but nowhere near the previous pace.
Maine’s June Rebound Still Left Thousands of Crossings Missing
Maine’s local picture shows how both sides of the story can be true. Maine Public reported on July 31 that personal-vehicle border crossings reached 119,970 in June 2026, compared with 108,934 in June 2025, citing U.S. Department of Transportation data. That represents 11,036 additional crossings, or approximately 10.1% growth. After a difficult year, an increase of that size offers a tangible reason for businesses to feel more hopeful about the Canadian market.
The same report placed the comparable 2024 level at nearly 155,000. Against that benchmark, June 2026 remained roughly 35,000 crossings short, or about 23% lower. Those percentages are calculated from the reported figures, with the earlier benchmark rounded. The improvement therefore recovered only part of the lost traffic. Importantly, these are June comparisons, not proof of Maine’s full-year performance or a count of restored hotel bookings. A better month can signal progress without establishing that the broader tourism economy has recovered.
A Border Crossing Is Not the Same as a Beach Holiday
The distinction between vehicles, people and holidays matters. The U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics records incoming border activity in separate categories, including personal vehicles and their passengers. The totals count crossings, not unique visitors, and do not identify every traveller’s nationality, final destination or reason for travelling. Consequently, Maine’s vehicle totals cannot simply be relabelled as the number of Canadian tourists staying in the state. A returning American and a Canadian holidaymaker can both contribute to traffic through the same crossing.
Trip length adds another complication. Nationally, 59.8% of Canadians’ automobile return trips from the United States in July 2026 were same-day journeys, according to Statistics Canada. Such trips may benefit shops and restaurants without generating an overnight accommodation booking. A family’s afternoon shopping excursion and a week beside the ocean therefore represent different opportunities for Maine businesses. Border traffic is a useful early signal, but overnight stays, spending and repeat bookings are also needed to judge a tourism recovery.
Old Orchard Beach’s Shopkeepers Describe an Uneven Return
The recovery becomes more tangible at a shop counter than in a national percentage. In reporting published July 6, Spectrum News interviewed several Old Orchard Beach business operators who had noticed more Canadian customers. Dave Belaire, owner of The Candy Store, described an increase from the previous year. Blake Laughlin, owner of Corner’s Surf Company, offered a more qualified assessment: Canadian visitors were returning, but business had not regained the strength of earlier years. He described them as “half-back.”
Other experiences differed. Joseph Flood, manager of Dolce Crema Café, also reported an uptick, while Rocco’s Pizza co-owner Paul Carney said he had not noticed a decline in Canadian customers. These are individual observations, not a representative measure of the town’s entire economy. Their value lies in showing why a single recovery narrative can be misleading. One business may have a bustling weekend while another still misses customers, and neither experience alone establishes what happened across Maine.
Canadians’ Reluctance Has Not Simply Disappeared
Improving traffic figures should not be mistaken for the disappearance of Canadians’ objections. In findings released in May, the Business Development Bank of Canada reported that 70% of travellers said they were avoiding the United States in 2026. At the same time, nearly nine in ten Canadians planned to travel somewhere. The distinction matters: reluctance to visit one country can coexist with a strong appetite for holidays, rather than reflecting a general decision to stay home.
There are important limits to that evidence. The research involved 1,000 Canadian adults surveyed through an online panel between February 25 and March 3, before the summer rebound. It measured intentions at that point, not whether respondents ultimately crossed the border, and used a non-probability sample. Still, it helps explain why describing the boycott as finished would go too far. Higher trip volumes can result from some travellers returning more frequently even while others continue to avoid the country. Border totals alone cannot reveal how many people have abandoned a political objection.
The Exchange Rate Still Changes the Price of a Beach Holiday
Politics is not the only consideration when a Canadian family prices a Maine getaway. Reuters reported the Canadian dollar trading at 71.27 U.S. cents on July 15, 2026, illustrating the exchange-rate hurdle during the summer holiday season. A welcoming message cannot remove the difference between a price displayed in U.S. dollars and the amount eventually charged to a Canadian account. Even someone ready to resume travelling south still has to make the budget work.
For illustration, at a rounded exchange rate of 71 U.S. cents per Canadian dollar, a US$1,000 trip would cost approximately C$1,408 before conversion fees. That is not a quoted holiday package, but it shows why lodging, meals and fuel can require a larger budget than their U.S. price tags suggest. Some households may respond by shortening a stay or choosing less expensive accommodation. Those are possibilities rather than measured outcomes, but they explain why returning traffic need not immediately restore business revenue.
Canadians Found Other Places to Spend Their Holiday Budgets
The decline in U.S. travel did not leave every cancelled holiday unused. Statistics Canada’s review of 2025 found that Canadian visits to the United States fell by 7.1 million, while domestic visits increased by five million and overseas visits rose by 1.3 million. Those increases nearly offset the U.S. decline in numerical terms. They do not prove that every additional Canadian or overseas journey directly replaced an American trip, but they show that travel activity continued elsewhere.
The spending shift was substantial. Canadians spent C$18.8 billion on U.S. visits in 2025, C$3.3 billion less than in 2024. For Maine, the implication is that recovering customers means competing for holiday budgets, not simply waiting for people to start travelling again. A family that enjoyed a different destination may now have another option to consider. Familiar seaside routines still have an opportunity to win back business, but a returning traveller’s decision is no longer necessarily an automatic one.
Border Communities Felt the Loss More Sharply
Statewide totals can conceal the places most exposed to missing cross-border customers. In a December 2025 analysis of Maine Revenue Services data, the Maine Center for Economic Policy found that taxable retail sales in border regions fell 3.3% between February and August compared with the same period in 2024. Sales elsewhere in Maine increased 1%. The contrast suggests that businesses near Canada experienced a different trading environment from the state as a whole.
The gap also appeared in hospitality. Restaurant and lodging sales in border regions dropped almost 5%, while the rest of Maine recorded growth of 1.7%. These historical figures do not measure the 2026 rebound or establish that every lost dollar resulted from the boycott. They do, however, show why an improvement in crossings matters locally. A shop or restaurant cannot replace missing receipts with reassuring statewide averages. Its recovery depends on customers returning to that particular community and spending money there.
A Small Visitor Share Still Represents Serious Money
Canada’s share of Maine’s visitors may look modest until it is translated into money. The Maine Office of Tourism’s 2024 reporting estimated nearly 800,000 Canadian visitors, representing about 5% of visitors and almost US$500 million in direct spending. That historical figure helps explain the attention paid to the market: even a relatively small share of total arrivals can represent substantial revenue for the businesses that serve those customers throughout the state.
The wider tourism economy magnifies those stakes. The same report placed total visitor spending at approximately US$9.23 billion and tourism-supported employment at 115,900 jobs. These are statewide totals covering tourism generally, not jobs supported exclusively by Canadians. A lost visit does not translate automatically into a lost job, either. Nevertheless, accommodation providers, restaurants and retailers depend on the spending behind the headline totals. Recovering Canadian demand would strengthen one part of that system, particularly where returning guests have previously been important customers.
Maine Has Tried to Keep the Door Open
Maine’s efforts to reassure Canadians began well before this summer’s tentative rebound. In an April 21, 2025, address, Governor Janet Mills said harmful rhetoric and tariffs were making Canadian neighbours feel unwelcome in the United States. She said she had been speaking with Atlantic Canadian counterparts about preserving travel and promoting tourism in both directions. The message was an attempt to distinguish Maine’s relationship with Canadians from the broader deterioration in relations with Washington.
The address also conveyed the anxiety behind that welcome. Mills cited more than 100 cancellations reported by Paradise Park Resort Campground and widespread paused or cancelled summer bookings at the family-run Point of View Inn. Those were examples from spring 2025, not fresh cancellation totals for 2026. They illustrate why rebuilding the relationship is more than a promotional exercise for affected businesses. A reassuring message may help restore confidence, but it cannot alone resolve political objections, currency costs or uncertainty about committing to another trip.
The Real Test Is Whether Visitors Stay—and Come Back Again
The next useful test is whether improvement survives beyond a comparison with the weak months of 2025. Statistics Canada has scheduled September’s preliminary travel indicators for October 13 and fuller August counts for October 22. Those releases should add national context, but Maine will still need its own evidence on visitors, overnight stays and spending. Comparing the same months with both 2025 and 2024 will help distinguish continued recovery from growth off a depressed base.
For businesses, the strongest reassurance would be a returning customer who stays, spends and books again. An extra car crossing the border is encouraging; a dependable flow of guests is what supports planning for the next season. The available evidence points to a thaw, not a complete restoration of the old travel relationship. Canadians are making more U.S. trips than last year, and some Maine operators are seeing the difference. The remaining challenge is turning those first signs of return into a durable recovery.
