Canada’s confrontation with the United States is reshaping the political landscape at home, at least for now. New Abacus Data polling conducted as Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended trade negotiations with Washington shows 56% of Canadians approving of the federal government’s performance, up four percentage points in two weeks. Liberal support has simultaneously climbed to 45% among committed voters, opening a 10-point advantage over the Conservatives at 35%.
The timing is striking. Carney halted negotiations on August 21 after saying last-minute American demands were unacceptable, and new U.S. tariffs took effect the next day. The polling cannot prove the dispute caused the Liberal improvement, but other findings show the Trump relationship has rapidly become a more important concern for Canadians. One important distinction also matters: the 56% figure measures approval of the government led by Carney; his separate personal positive-impression rating stands at 53%.
The 56% Number Shows a Meaningful Improvement
Federal government approval has reached 56%, according to Abacus Data’s August 21–26 polling of 2,022 Canadian adults. Twenty-nine percent disapprove and 15% neither approve nor disapprove. Compared with the firm’s August 12 measurement, approval rose four percentage points while disapproval declined two points. That moved the government’s net approval rating from plus 21 to plus 27 in roughly two weeks.
Carney’s own numbers moved in the same direction, although they measure something slightly different. Fifty-three percent of respondents have a positive impression of the prime minister and 28% have a negative impression, giving him a net rating of plus 25, compared with plus 20 two weeks earlier. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre stands at 35% positive and 46% negative, for a net rating of minus 11. The resulting 36-point gap in net impressions gives Carney a significant personal advantage even before party preference enters the equation.
Liberals Have Opened a 10-Point National Lead
The party numbers are arguably more politically significant. Among committed voters, Abacus finds the Liberals at 45%, Conservatives at 35%, NDP at 9%, Bloc Québécois at 7%, Greens at 2% and People’s Party at 1%. Liberal support increased three points from the previous Abacus measurement, while Conservative support remained unchanged. Among respondents who say they are certain to vote, the result is almost identical: 46% Liberal and 36% Conservative.
That represents a considerably wider Liberal advantage than Canadians delivered at the ballot box in April 2025. Elections Canada’s final results showed the Liberals receiving 43.8% of valid votes nationally and the Conservatives 41.3%, a gap of only 2.5 points. The Liberals won 169 seats compared with 144 for the Conservatives. A poll showing a 10-point gap therefore represents meaningful movement from the last election environment, although national vote intention cannot simply be converted into a seat projection and may change substantially before Canadians vote again.
Trump Has Suddenly Become a Much Bigger Political Issue
The most revealing change may be found outside the traditional vote-intention numbers. Abacus reports that 45% of Canadians now identify Donald Trump and his administration as one of the three most important issues facing the country. That figure increased seven points in two weeks and nine points from May. Only the cost of living, selected by 62%, ranks higher nationally. The economy follows at 39%, while housing affordability sits at 30%.
That matters because voters worried about Trump currently lean heavily toward Carney’s Liberals. Among respondents who put Trump in their top three concerns, 60% support the Liberals and just 21% support the Conservatives. Asked which party would handle Trump and his administration best, 62% select the Liberals compared with 18% choosing the Conservatives. The numbers provide a plausible explanation for the broader Liberal improvement: as Canada-U.S. confrontation occupies more political attention, the issue environment is shifting toward an area where voters currently give Carney a substantial advantage.
Walking Away From Washington Has Broad Public Backing
Carney’s August 21 decision to suspend trade negotiations appears to have landed differently from an ordinary partisan dispute. In separate questions from the same Abacus fieldwork, 71% said Ottawa made the right decision to suspend negotiations rather than accept the American terms, even when the question explicitly noted that doing so could mean higher tariffs and greater economic uncertainty. Seventeen percent preferred accepting the terms, while 12% were unsure.
Perhaps more important for the Conservatives, support crossed party lines. Among people who voted Conservative in the 2025 election, 54% still said suspending negotiations was the correct decision, while 31% wanted the government to take the deal. Angus Reid Institute independently found a similar pattern, with 76% nationally supporting the decision and 53% of 2025 Conservative voters agreeing with it. Abacus also found 60% approving of Carney and the government’s overall handling of the negotiations, against only 18% disapproving. That creates an unusually broad constituency for Ottawa’s tougher position.
Quebec Is Driving Some of the Biggest Movement
Quebec stands out as one of the most dramatic pieces of the new political picture. Abacus has the Liberals at 45% in the province and the Bloc Québécois at 34%. Just two weeks earlier, the Liberals had fallen to 37% while the Bloc was at 35%. An apparent two-point Liberal advantage has therefore expanded to 11 points within the pollster’s tracking, a major shift in a province capable of determining the shape of a federal election.
The Canada-U.S. confrontation is unusually salient there as well. Sixty-three percent of Quebec respondents identify Trump and his administration as a top-three concern, up from 52% two weeks earlier. Trump now ranks ahead of the cost of living, at 53%, as Quebec’s most frequently cited issue. Carney’s personal net impression in the province is plus 46, his strongest regional result in the country. Those figures suggest the Liberals’ Quebec rebound and the growing focus on Washington are occurring simultaneously, though polling alone cannot establish that one directly caused the other.
Canada’s Regional Divide Has Not Disappeared
Despite the strong national Liberal number, Canada remains far from politically uniform. Abacus places the Liberals at 49% in Ontario, 45% in Quebec and 58% in Atlantic Canada. Conservatives remain dominant in Alberta at 61% and lead Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 48%. British Columbia is considerably more competitive, but the Conservatives hold a narrow lead there at 37%.
The trade dispute itself has somewhat broader support than these party numbers might suggest. Abacus found 61% of Albertans saying Ottawa was right to suspend negotiations, despite Alberta being the Conservatives’ strongest major region. When respondents were asked about the government’s overall handling of the trade talks, however, Alberta was the only region where approval fell below half, at 48%. The distinction is important: Canadians can support Carney’s decision to reject the U.S. terms without becoming Liberal voters. That helps explain why Conservative support can remain strong in western Canada even during a national political moment that appears favourable to the government.
Older Canadians Are Especially Supportive of Carney’s Approach
Age produces another important dividing line. The Liberals lead particularly strongly among Canadians aged 60 and older, receiving 56% in the latest Abacus vote-intention data. Conservatives lead among adults aged 30 to 44 at 40%, while the parties are described as nearly tied among respondents aged 18 to 29. That means the Liberal advantage is not evenly distributed across generations.
The differences become even clearer on the trade confrontation. Among Canadians aged 60 and older, 85% say suspending negotiations with Washington was the right move. Among those aged 18 to 29, the figure falls to 56%. Approval of Carney’s overall handling of the negotiations similarly reaches 73% among the oldest group but only 49% among the youngest, with 31% of younger adults choosing a neutral response. Rather than representing overwhelming opposition among young Canadians, the data point to substantially more hesitation about the economic costs of a prolonged fight.
Conservatives Still Have Powerful Issues to Campaign On
A 35% Conservative number does not mean the party has lost its political advantages. Abacus finds Conservatives ahead when Canadians concerned about the cost of living are asked which party can handle that issue best: 35% choose Conservatives and 31% Liberals. On crime and public safety, the Conservative advantage is much larger, 59% to 17%. Immigration produces an even wider 62% to 15% Conservative lead.
The economy presents a more competitive picture, with the two parties tied at 40% when respondents focused on that issue are asked which party is best equipped to manage it. These results matter because the cost of living, not Trump, remains Canada’s most widely cited concern at 62%. Conservatives therefore have a clear route back into the political conversation if voters’ attention shifts from the confrontation with Washington toward prices, immigration or public safety. The current Liberal advantage depends partly on which problems Canadians are thinking about when they make their political choices.
Economic Conditions Could Decide Whether the Political Bounce Lasts
The government enters the confrontation with some encouraging economic data. Statistics Canada reported that real GDP increased 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, equivalent to roughly 3.3% at an annualized rate, with exports, household spending and business investment contributing to growth. Real GDP per capita also increased 1.0% during the quarter. Those figures describe economic activity before the latest U.S. tariffs took effect on August 22, however, so they cannot answer how the newest escalation will affect households and businesses.
The stakes are substantial. Ottawa says the new American measure applies a 50% tariff to $27.6 billion of Canadian goods. Canada plans matching tariffs on $27.6 billion of U.S. imports beginning September 8 and has announced $7.5 billion in new and enhanced support for affected workers and businesses. The Bank of Canada has repeatedly warned that persistent U.S. trade restrictions and uncertainty can weaken investment, exports and hiring. Political support that looks resilient during a diplomatic confrontation could therefore face a much harder test if the dispute becomes visible through lost jobs, higher prices or delayed investment.
This Is a Strong Snapshot, Not an Election Result
The Abacus findings are based on an online poll of 2,022 Canadian adults conducted from August 21 through August 26. Respondents were recruited through partner panels and the results were weighted to match Canadian population characteristics including age, gender, education and region. Abacus says the margin of error for a comparable probability-based sample would be plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Timing matters just as much as methodology. The fieldwork began on the day Carney suspended the U.S. negotiations, and most respondents answered after the breakdown and new American tariffs became known. Abacus notes that most interviews were completed before Ottawa announced the detailed counter-tariff package on August 25. The results therefore capture an unusually intense political moment. They show that Carney currently has the advantage, that Canadians broadly support rejecting Washington’s terms and that Conservatives have not benefited as Trump dominates the agenda. Whether those conditions persist will depend heavily on what the trade fight costs Canadians in the months ahead.
