The Canada-U.S. relationship has rarely lacked disagreements, but the current strain has pushed a group of former political leaders, senior officials, business figures and policy experts to think beyond the next trade deadline. Eighteen members of the new Second Century Commission gathered in Baltimore on October 20–21, 2026, to begin designing a long-term roadmap for cooperation between the two neighbours.
Co-chaired by former Canadian cabinet minister Lisa Raitt and former U.S. congresswoman Jane Harman, the initiative arrives as tariffs, the unsettled future of CUSMA, defence pressures and rapid technological change test a partnership built over generations. Rather than trying to negotiate an immediate government-to-government deal, the commission is aiming at something broader: practical recommendations for how Canada and the United States can work together over the coming decades.
Baltimore Becomes the Starting Point for a Longer Conversation
The Baltimore meeting is the first full gathering of the Second Century Commission’s 18 commissioners, and its mandate is deliberately bigger than the dispute dominating today’s headlines. The group is backed by McGill University’s Max Bell School of Public Policy, the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the Centre for International Governance Innovation. Its stated goal is to develop recommendations on shared prosperity and security while rebuilding the institutional and personal connections that have traditionally helped the two countries manage disagreements.
That long-range approach matters because the bilateral relationship is no longer being treated as something that can simply run on habit. The commission plans to examine trade, defence, energy, critical minerals, emerging technology, migration, transportation and people-to-people ties. Its organizers have also stressed that commissioners are not expected to agree on every issue. The idea is to put competing perspectives in the same room and identify areas where cooperation can survive changes in governments, political moods and economic cycles. In that sense, Baltimore is less about announcing a deal than beginning a process for rebuilding durable habits of coordination.
A Table Built to Cross Political and Institutional Lines
The membership is designed to mix political experience with expertise from business, national security, energy, technology and civil society. Raitt previously served as Canada’s minister of natural resources, labour and transport, while Harman spent nine terms in the U.S. House of Representatives and served as the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee after 9/11. They are joined by former U.S. energy secretary Jennifer Granholm, former U.S. commerce secretary Carlos Gutierrez, former Washington governor Christine Gregoire, former Canadian deputy prime minister John Manley and former Alberta premier Rachel Notley.
The commission also includes people whose careers have been spent inside the systems the two countries share. Glen VanHerck is a former commander of NORAD and U.S. Northern Command, while Vincent Rigby previously served as Canada’s national security and intelligence adviser. Steve Carlisle once led General Motors North America, and Canadian Chamber of Commerce chief executive Candace Laing brings a current business perspective. That mix is significant: a debate about Canada-U.S. relations can quickly move from auto plants in Ontario and Michigan to Arctic surveillance, power grids, cyber threats and mineral supply chains. The group’s composition reflects how interconnected those issues have become.
The Economic Relationship Is Still Too Large to Ignore
For all the political friction, the economic foundation remains immense. The U.S. Trade Representative estimates that two-way U.S. goods and services trade with Canada totalled about US$872.3 billion in 2025. Goods alone accounted for roughly US$715.5 billion. Canada remained a major market for American exporters, while the United States continued to absorb the majority of Canadian merchandise exports even after a year of disruption.
The trade war has nonetheless changed the pattern. Statistics Canada reported that Canadian merchandise exports to the United States fell 5.8% in 2025, while imports from the U.S. declined 2.9%. The U.S. share of Canadian merchandise exports dropped from 75.9% in 2024 to 71.7% in 2025 as Canadian companies expanded sales elsewhere. That is a meaningful shift, but it does not amount to economic separation. Auto parts, food, machinery, energy and industrial materials still move through deeply integrated supply chains. For the commission, the challenge is therefore not simply whether the two countries should trade more; it is how to make cross-border commerce more predictable when political decisions can suddenly alter costs for firms on both sides.
Tariffs and the Unsettled Future of CUSMA Define the Immediate Strain
The commission is beginning its work after one of the sharpest trade confrontations in the modern bilateral relationship. Canada suspended intensive trade negotiations with Washington on August 21 after Prime Minister Mark Carney said new U.S. terms were unfair and economically unacceptable. The United States then imposed 50% tariffs on roughly C$28 billion of Canadian goods. Ottawa responded with matching counter-tariffs, with measures covering C$27.6 billion of U.S. imports taking effect on September 8 across sectors including steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics.
At the same time, the continental trade framework is unsettled. On July 1, the United States declined to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in its current form during the mandatory joint review. The agreement remains in force, but the decision triggered annual reviews unless all three countries eventually agree to extend its term. U.S. officials have already launched a consultation process ahead of the 2027 review. That creates an unusual backdrop for a long-term commission: the basic architecture of North American trade still exists, yet its future rules are under active debate. A useful roadmap will have to address not only tariff levels, but also rules of origin, supply-chain resilience and mechanisms that reduce the risk of recurring economic shocks.
Defence Cooperation Remains One of the Hardest Ties to Unwind
Trade disputes can be escalated with a signature, but continental defence is built around systems that have been integrated for decades. NORAD remains the clearest example. Canada and the United States jointly operate the binational command for aerospace warning, aerospace control and maritime warning, and roughly 1,000 Canadian Armed Forces members support NORAD missions. Ottawa has committed C$38.6 billion over 20 years to modernize its NORAD capabilities, including new surveillance systems, command-and-control technology, weapons, northern infrastructure and research.
The commission’s decision to include former NORAD and U.S. Northern Command leader Glen VanHerck makes that reality tangible. North American defence planning now has to account for advanced cruise missiles, hypersonic weapons, Arctic access and increasingly sophisticated surveillance requirements. Canada’s modernization program includes Arctic over-the-horizon radar and upgrades to northern operating locations. These are multi-year investments that cannot easily be separated from U.S. systems or geography. The practical question for the commission is how to preserve military interoperability and trust even when political relations are tense. Defence may therefore become one of the strongest arguments for keeping channels of cooperation open when other parts of the relationship are under pressure.
Energy and Critical Minerals Create Mutual Dependence
Energy is another area where the border functions more like a network than a dividing line. Canada’s energy regulator reported that exports of crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas and natural gas liquids to the United States were worth C$157.5 billion in 2025. Canada supplied 63.4% of U.S. crude oil imports, close to 100% of U.S. natural gas imports and 81.3% of the electricity the United States imported that year. Eighty-six international power lines connect Canadian provinces and U.S. states, underscoring how physical infrastructure ties the two markets together.
Critical minerals add a newer strategic layer. Natural Resources Canada says the United States remained Canada’s largest critical-minerals trading partner in 2025, with total two-way trade of about C$37 billion. Canadian critical-mineral exports to the U.S. reached roughly C$28.8 billion, including materials used in defence, advanced manufacturing, electricity systems and clean technologies. These numbers help explain why the commission lists energy, critical minerals and the environment among its core areas. Even as Canada seeks more export markets and the United States pursues greater supply security, both countries retain strong incentives to build dependable North American resource chains rather than treat every commodity as another point of leverage.
Technology and Mobility Are Becoming Strategic Issues Too
The relationship is no longer defined only by trucks, pipelines and military aircraft. The commission has explicitly placed artificial intelligence, digital governance and technology on its agenda, reflecting how economic competitiveness and national security increasingly overlap. Canada’s own CUSMA review materials identify digital trade and artificial intelligence as examples of the changes the agreement must be able to accommodate. The commission also includes technology and cybersecurity specialists such as strategic foresight adviser Sinead Bovell and former senior U.S. cybersecurity official Melissa Hathaway, signalling that future cooperation will have to deal with data, standards, cyber resilience and emerging technologies.
The human connection is equally important. Canada and the United States share a land border of nearly 9,000 kilometres, and Global Affairs Canada says almost 328,000 people cross it on a typical day. About 800,000 Canadian citizens live in the United States. Political tension has already shown up in travel behaviour: Canadian visits to the United States fell 23.5% in 2025 compared with 2024, although preliminary data showed cross-border travel beginning to recover in parts of 2026. For students, families, workers and small businesses near the border, the relationship is experienced through ordinary movement as much as through summit diplomacy.
The Roadmap Will Be Judged by What Happens After Baltimore
The Baltimore session is only the beginning. The commission plans four in-person meetings across Ottawa, Baltimore, Montreal and Washington during 2026 and 2027, with Montreal scheduled to host the next gathering in the spring. Its work will also draw on commissioned policy papers, an advisory group of former ambassadors, technical experts and a youth assembly. A complementary Second Century Partnership Fund is intended to support cross-border research, dialogue and collaboration beyond the commissioners themselves.
The central deliverable is a final report planned for late 2027, followed by briefings and outreach aimed at governments and legislators in both countries. That timeline is important because it gives the group room to think beyond the latest tariff announcement while still operating during a period of active trade renegotiation and political uncertainty. The commission has no authority to set tariffs, renegotiate CUSMA or command military policy. Its influence will depend on whether its proposals are specific enough to be usable by future governments. If it succeeds, the value may lie less in restoring the old relationship than in defining a more realistic one—still close, but built with clearer rules, stronger institutions and a better understanding of where Canadian and American interests genuinely overlap.
