Canada’s confrontation with the United States is increasingly reshaping the country’s domestic political landscape. Fresh national numbers put the governing Liberals at 45% support among decided and leaning voters, compared with 31% for the Conservatives, while Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval has climbed to 66%.
The timing is significant. The measurements were taken entirely after Carney suspended negotiations with Washington on August 21, rejecting terms he said were unfair and economically damaging. Since then, trade tensions have intensified, Canadian retaliation has moved forward, and voters have watched an economic dispute become a broader argument over sovereignty and national interests. The Liberals appear to be benefiting from that environment, although the evidence shows an important distinction: the numbers establish a strong political shift during the confrontation, but they cannot prove the trade dispute alone caused it.
The Liberals Now Hold a 14-Point National Advantage
The latest Liaison Strategies federal tracker places the Liberals at 45% among decided and leaning voters, giving them a 14-percentage-point advantage over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives at 31%. The NDP sits considerably farther back at 13%, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 6%, while the Greens and People’s Party each attract 2%. A lead of this size does not guarantee what would happen in a future election, but it creates a difficult national starting point for an opposition party trying to regain momentum.
Carney’s numbers are arguably even more striking than his party’s. Liaison recorded 66% approval for the prime minister and 26% disapproval. That leaves considerably more Canadians approving than rejecting his performance at a moment when Ottawa is managing one of its most consequential disputes with Washington in decades. The distinction matters: political parties normally contain voters who are lukewarm about their leader, but Carney’s approval extends substantially beyond the Liberal Party’s 45% ballot support.
The Political Shift Became Stronger After the Trade Break
The Liberal advantage did not suddenly appear on August 21. Liaison had already measured the Liberals at 43% and the Conservatives at 32% in mid-August, an 11-point lead. Carney’s approval at that point stood at 60%. What changed after negotiations broke down was the magnitude of the movement. A tracker released August 31, with more than half its interviews conducted after the confrontation escalated, put the Liberals at 46% and Conservatives at only 29%.
That 17-point gap subsequently narrowed to 14 points in the fully post-announcement sample, with Conservatives recovering to 31% and Liberals easing to 45%. Carney’s approval, however, continued rising, reaching 66% after hitting 64% in the previous tracker. The sequence suggests something more durable than a one-day reaction, while also showing why individual weekly movements should not be exaggerated. The Conservatives have regained some ground since their 29% low, but the larger Liberal advantage and elevated Carney approval have survived several weeks of intense trade coverage.
The Trade Dispute Has Become About More Than Tariffs
Carney formally suspended negotiations with the United States on August 21 after saying last-minute changes in Washington’s proposed terms were unfair and economically unsound. The U.S. subsequently imposed 50% tariffs on approximately $27.6 billion of Canadian goods. Ottawa answered with plans to match the measures dollar for dollar, including Canadian tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on targeted American products beginning September 8.
Those numbers translate into practical concerns far beyond Parliament Hill. The Canadian response covers goods in sectors including steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, electronics and other manufacturing categories. That gives the dispute immediate significance for factories, farms, importers and households. Canada also remains deeply tied to the American economy: Statistics Canada reported that 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025, even after that share fell substantially from 75.9% in 2024. For many voters, therefore, standing up to Washington and protecting economic security are becoming parts of the same political question.
Quebec Has Become Carney’s Strongest Political Ground
Quebec stands out sharply in the latest Liaison numbers. Carney’s approval reaches 80% in the province, while Liberal ballot support is measured at 45%. The Bloc Québécois follows at 26% and the Conservatives at 18%. Another recent national study by Abacus Data showed the same broad trend, finding Liberal support at 45% in Quebec and identifying concern about Donald Trump and his administration as a top-three issue for 63% of Quebec respondents.
There is also electoral evidence beyond national tracking. In the August 31 federal by-election in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, validated Elections Canada results show Liberal Daniel Gobeil winning 51.6% of the vote. Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé received 32.8%, while Conservative Régis Gaudreault finished at 12.6%. That was particularly notable because the riding had previously been Conservative. One constituency cannot represent an entire province, but a Conservative-held Quebec seat switching decisively to the Liberals while national measurements show Carney at 80% approval provides a tangible indication of the challenge facing Poilievre there.
Liberal Strength Now Extends Across Several Key Regions
The Liberal advantage is not confined to Quebec. Liaison reports the party ahead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia, while Conservatives maintain the advantage in Alberta and the Prairies. Ontario is particularly important because of its large share of House of Commons seats: the latest tracker has the Liberals leading Conservatives there by 49% to 33%. Carney’s approval also reaches 75% in Atlantic Canada and 70% in British Columbia.
Recent federal by-elections offer another useful comparison with those regional numbers. Elections Canada’s validated results show Liberal Tanveer Shahnawaz taking 55.8% in Toronto’s Beaches—East York, compared with 25.6% for the NDP and 15.5% for the Conservatives. In North Vancouver—Capilano, Liberal Braeden Caley won 58.7%, against 29.2% for the Conservative candidate. Both were Liberal-held ridings, so the victories were less surprising than the Quebec pickup. Still, winning comfortably on opposite sides of the country illustrates the geographic breadth currently supporting the government’s national position.
Women and Older Canadians Are Driving Much of the Lead
Behind the 45%-to-31% national headline sits a striking demographic divide. Liaison has the Liberals at 50% among women, more than double the Conservatives’ 24%. Among voters aged 65 and older, the gap is similarly large: 59% Liberal against 27% Conservative. Those groups are therefore doing substantial work in producing the overall 14-point advantage, rather than support being evenly distributed across the electorate.
The competition is much closer among men, where Liberal support stands at 41% and Conservative support at 38%. That three-point difference illustrates why national averages can hide very different political contests underneath. Older Canadians are also generally reliable participants in federal elections, making a large lead in that group particularly valuable politically. The pattern is not unique to Liaison: Abacus Data’s late-August research likewise found the Liberals especially strong among older voters and ahead among women. For Conservatives, closing the national gap consequently requires more than simply strengthening an already loyal base; it means expanding support among demographic groups currently leaning heavily toward Carney.
Poilievre’s Personal Numbers Remain a Major Conservative Problem
Conservative support has recovered from the 29% measured in Liaison’s previous tracker, but Pierre Poilievre’s personal standing remains substantially weaker than Carney’s. The latest figures put Poilievre at 34% favourable and 54% unfavourable nationally. The problem becomes more pronounced in provinces where Conservatives need to compete for large numbers of seats: 71% in Quebec view him unfavourably, as do 65% in British Columbia and 58% in Ontario.
Those numbers do not mean every voter who dislikes Poilievre will automatically support the Liberals. Conservative ballot support at 31% is itself evidence that political preference and leader favourability are not identical. Still, federal campaigns are heavily shaped by leaders, particularly when the dominant issue involves negotiations between heads of government. Carney is currently occupying that stage as prime minister during the confrontation with Washington. For Poilievre, the strategic challenge is therefore twofold: Conservatives need to change which issues dominate political discussion while simultaneously improving perceptions of their leader among voters outside their strongest western constituencies.
Younger Voters Are Far Less Settled Than the National Numbers Suggest
The political picture looks considerably more competitive among Canadians aged 18 to 34. Liaison places the Liberals at 36% in that group, Conservatives at 27% and the NDP at 23%. Instead of the overwhelming two-party gap visible among older Canadians, younger voters are divided across three significant options. That creates one of the few major parts of the electorate where neither the Liberals nor Conservatives can assume the contest has settled into a predictable pattern.
The NDP’s national 13% therefore understates its relative strength among younger Canadians. NDP Leader Avi Lewis is viewed favourably by 43% of voters aged 18 to 34 in the Liaison findings, compared with 30% favourability nationally. That gives the New Democrats potential room to influence close contests even when they remain far behind nationally. Younger households are also disproportionately exposed to concerns such as housing costs, entry-level employment and affordability. If those domestic pressures displace Canada-U.S. relations as the central political story, this more fragmented group could become an important source of movement.
Other National Research Points in the Same General Direction
Liaison is not the only organization finding a substantial Liberal advantage, although the exact numbers differ. Abacus Data’s August 21–26 research placed the Liberals at 45% and Conservatives at 35%, a 10-point gap. It also found federal government approval rising to 56% and Carney holding a positive personal impression among 53% of respondents. Crucially, 45% identified Trump and his administration as one of Canada’s three most important issues, up seven points in two weeks.
Nanos Research also measured a Liberal lead in its four-week tracking period ending August 28. Its figures put the Liberals at 43.7%, Conservatives at 32.6% and NDP at 12%. On the separate question of preferred prime minister, Carney stood at 50.9%, compared with 21.2% for Poilievre. Different organizations use different methodologies and interviewing windows, so their numbers should not be treated as interchangeable. The broader direction is nevertheless consistent: multiple independent measurements show Liberals ahead nationally and Carney holding a substantial personal advantage.
Affordability Could Still Change the Political Terrain
The biggest caution for the Liberals is that Canada-U.S. tensions are not the only issue driving voters. Abacus Data found the rising cost of living remained Canadians’ most frequently identified concern in late August, selected by 62% as a top-three issue. Trump and his administration ranked second at 45%, followed by the economy at 39%. Among respondents focused on the economy, Liberal and Conservative support was tied at 43% apiece, illustrating how dramatically the electoral landscape can change depending on which problem occupies public attention.
That is why a 14-point Liberal lead should be understood as a strong current position rather than a permanent realignment. Liaison interviewed 1,526 Canadians using random-digit-dial IVR and reports a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for its full sample, with greater uncertainty for smaller regional and demographic groups. More importantly, public priorities can move faster than party loyalties. Carney is benefiting from a moment in which leadership, trade and national sovereignty overlap. Maintaining that advantage will depend on whether Canadians continue to approve of how he handles Washington—and whether the government can translate political strength abroad into economic confidence at home.
