Three of the world’s most powerful leaders are preparing for an unprecedented diplomatic meeting in China, just as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives with his own ambitious trade and foreign policy agenda. The White House confirmed on November 13 that U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the November 18–19 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen. The planned talks could address nuclear arms control and the war involving Iran, while raising concerns about Ukraine’s future. Meanwhile, Carney’s presence places Canada at the centre of a gathering where global security, economic competition and international partnerships will compete for attention. With Washington, Beijing and Moscow preparing for discussions, the diplomatic stakes extend far beyond the summit itself.
White House Confirms an Unprecedented Meeting of Three Global Powers
On Friday, November 13, the White House confirmed plans for Trump, Xi and Putin to meet on Thursday, November 19, during the APEC gathering in Shenzhen. The announcement followed weeks of speculation, including earlier indications from Moscow that a three-way meeting was being discussed. Trump had also told reporters on November 8 that he expected to meet both leaders. The latest confirmation represents an important diplomatic development, transforming a tentative proposal into a scheduled encounter involving three countries that exercise enormous influence over international security, global commerce and geopolitical alliances.
However, confirming a meeting does not guarantee that the leaders will reach a meaningful agreement. A senior American official indicated that discussions would serve as an initial opportunity to explore nuclear arms control, with no immediate deal anticipated. The White House also indicated that a separate Trump-Putin meeting was not planned. Although the leaders have met individually on numerous occasions, bringing all three together in a dedicated summit would be unprecedented. Even without a breakthrough, the gathering could establish a new channel for discussions between governments whose competing interests frequently shape international crises.
Why China’s APEC Summit Has Become a Major Diplomatic Flashpoint
China will host the 33rd APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19. The organization brings together 21 member economies, including Canada, the United States, China, Russia, Japan and Australia. According to the Canadian government, APEC members accounted for more than 60% of global GDP in 2025 and approximately 80.6% of Canada’s merchandise trade. Those figures help explain why the gathering matters beyond the political leaders attending. Decisions about trade cooperation, investment and regional economic stability affect businesses and workers across the Pacific.
This year’s official theme is “Building an Asia-Pacific Community to Prosper Together,” with openness, innovation and cooperation forming its central priorities. Xi is scheduled to chair the leaders’ meeting, deliver remarks and hold separate discussions with visiting leaders. The accompanying APEC CEO Summit will run November 17–18, bringing business representatives into conversations about artificial intelligence, connectivity and economic growth. However, the Trump-Xi-Putin meeting threatens to overshadow those economic discussions. Instead of concentrating entirely on tariffs, technology and investment, international attention may shift toward nuclear weapons, military conflicts and the balance of global power.
Nuclear Arms Control Could Become the Summit’s Most Important Issue
Nuclear weapons are expected to dominate the trilateral discussions, particularly after the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026. That agreement had restricted deployed strategic nuclear weapons held by the United States and Russia. Its expiration removed the last remaining bilateral treaty limits on their strategic arsenals, creating uncertainty about the future of arms control. Trump has argued that any replacement agreement should involve China, whose expanding nuclear capabilities have become an increasingly significant concern for Washington. The planned meeting offers an opportunity to explore whether such negotiations could begin.
The challenge becomes clearer when comparing the countries’ nuclear inventories. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that Russia possessed approximately 5,420 nuclear warheads in January 2026, compared with 5,042 for the United States and 620 for China. Those figures include retired warheads awaiting dismantlement, not just weapons available for military use. China has historically resisted joining agreements that would constrain its much smaller arsenal alongside those of Washington and Moscow. As a result, a comprehensive three-country treaty remains a difficult prospect. Even securing agreement on continued discussions, transparency measures or future negotiating principles would represent an initial diplomatic achievement.
Ukraine Fears Being Excluded From Decisions About Its Future
The planned summit has generated particular concern in Ukraine, where President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned against major powers discussing the country’s future without Ukrainian participation. Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, and negotiations aimed at ending the conflict have repeatedly encountered disagreements over territory, security guarantees and Moscow’s demands. In the days preceding the summit announcement, Kremlin officials suggested Putin intended to raise the Ukraine conflict with Trump. American officials, however, indicated that Trump would avoid making Ukraine a focus of the trilateral discussion, highlighting a significant difference in expectations.
The diplomatic setting has prompted comparisons with the 1945 Yalta Conference, when Allied leaders discussed arrangements for postwar Europe. Those comparisons reflect concerns about powerful governments making consequential decisions without the participation of countries directly affected. They do not establish that such an agreement is being prepared in Shenzhen. The concern is particularly sensitive because Ukraine and its European partners continue to insist that any settlement must respect Ukrainian sovereignty. Recent American-led negotiations have also explored greater European involvement, while Putin has rejected the deployment of foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine. The competing positions illustrate why a meeting involving Washington, Beijing and Moscow could attract as much anxiety as optimism.
Trump’s Push to End the Iran War Adds Another Urgent Dimension
The ongoing conflict involving the United States and Iran represents another major issue surrounding the Shenzhen meeting. Trump specifically identified efforts to end the war when discussing the possibility of talks with Xi and Putin on November 8. The conflict began with American and Israeli military action against Iran on February 28, 2026, and has produced months of military confrontation, economic disruption and diplomatic uncertainty. Efforts to reach a settlement have involved regional intermediaries, including Qatar, but negotiations have struggled to bridge disagreements over security guarantees, military operations and Iran’s nuclear program.
Reuters reported on November 9 that Washington was intensifying diplomatic efforts involving Qatar, even as American and Gulf officials expressed doubts about an imminent agreement. Military incidents involving Iran and shipping in the Gulf have added further uncertainty. China and Russia have both opposed renewed military escalation, creating potential common ground for discussions with Washington despite their broader disagreements. Nevertheless, the presence of three powerful governments does not guarantee a settlement. Iran would still need to accept the terms of any eventual agreement. For countries such as Canada, the consequences extend beyond diplomacy, since instability in the Middle East can affect global oil markets, transportation costs and economic confidence.
China Faces a Delicate Balancing Act Between Washington and Moscow
For Xi, hosting a gathering involving Trump and Putin presents an opportunity to demonstrate China’s growing diplomatic influence. Beijing maintains extensive economic and political relations with Moscow while simultaneously managing a complicated trade relationship with Washington. China also wants its APEC presidency to emphasize economic cooperation, technological innovation and regional development. A high-profile meeting involving the world’s major nuclear powers could reinforce China’s international standing, but it could also divert attention from the economic priorities Beijing spent months preparing. Analysts have suggested that providing Putin with such a prominent diplomatic platform could complicate China’s relationships with European governments concerned about Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
Economic tensions between Beijing and Washington provide additional context. On November 9, China announced a two-month extension of certain export-control suspensions, including restrictions involving rare-earth materials, keeping those waivers in place until January 10, 2027. The decision preserved part of a broader trade understanding between Trump and Xi. Rare-earth supplies are particularly important to manufacturers of electric vehicles, advanced electronics and defence equipment. Nevertheless, temporary trade concessions do not eliminate deeper disagreements over technology, security and market access. Xi therefore approaches the summit with competing objectives: demonstrating diplomatic leadership, protecting China’s strategic interests and avoiding commitments that could constrain its economic or military ambitions.
Carney’s Four-Summit Tour Brings Canada Into the Same Diplomatic Arena
Carney’s planned appearance in Shenzhen forms the final stage of a wider international trip covering Ireland, the Philippines, Cambodia and China between November 11 and 19. The Canadian government announced that the prime minister would participate in four major gatherings to strengthen economic partnerships and advance security interests. His itinerary includes the European Political Community summit in Dublin, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Manila, the Francophonie summit in Phnom Penh and the APEC leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen. The itinerary reflects Ottawa’s efforts to build relationships across several regions rather than concentrating its diplomatic engagement on Washington.
The economic objectives are substantial. In Southeast Asia, Canada hopes to finalize an ASEAN free trade agreement that Ottawa says could unlock more than $3.5 billion in additional export opportunities. The government is also pursuing a separate trade agreement with the Philippines, while the Francophonie gathering provides an opportunity to strengthen cultural and political partnerships ahead of Canada’s planned hosting of the summit in 2028. Shenzhen adds another dimension because Canada conducts a considerable portion of its merchandise trade with APEC economies. Although the Trump-Xi-Putin meeting will attract international attention, Carney’s broader agenda emphasizes market diversification, investment opportunities and the economic relationships that could benefit Canadian industries over the coming years.
Canada’s Renewed Trade Relationship With China Carries Significant Economic Stakes
Canada’s relationship with China has undergone a notable change during 2026. In January, Carney and Xi announced a strategic partnership covering energy, trade, security, international cooperation and cultural ties. The economic relationship is already substantial. Canadian government figures show that merchandise trade between the two countries reached approximately $125.7 billion in 2025, including $35 billion in Canadian exports. More recently, on November 4, Ottawa announced that China had agreed to extend favourable market access for Canadian canola meal, peas, lobsters and crab through the end of 2028. The agreement provides additional certainty for agricultural producers and seafood exporters seeking stable access to the Chinese market.
The partnership also reaches into the politically sensitive automotive industry. An agreement announced in January established an annual quota of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles eligible to enter Canada at a tariff rate of 6.1%, with implementation beginning in March. Ottawa has presented the arrangement as a way to encourage affordable electric vehicles and potential investment in Canadian manufacturing, although those anticipated benefits are not guaranteed. The government has also set an objective of increasing Canadian exports to China by 50% by 2030. For Carney, the Shenzhen gathering presents an opportunity to build on these existing commitments while exploring additional opportunities in energy, agriculture, technology and manufacturing.
Carney Plans to Confront Xi Over Foreign Interference Despite Improving Relations
The renewed economic partnership between Canada and China does not mean longstanding security concerns have disappeared. On November 10, Carney confirmed that he intends to raise foreign interference directly with Xi during their expected meeting in Shenzhen. Speaking at a news conference in Montreal, the prime minister emphasized Canada’s expectation that foreign governments respect its domestic affairs and democratic institutions. The issue remains politically sensitive following the 2025 public inquiry into foreign interference, which identified China as the most active state-based perpetrator targeting Canadian democratic institutions. Beijing has repeatedly denied interfering in Canada’s internal affairs.
Carney has acknowledged that economic cooperation with China must operate within clear security boundaries. His stated agenda for the upcoming meeting includes international security, bilateral economic relations and concerns about foreign interference. The challenge is finding areas where cooperation can expand without compromising Canada’s independence or public confidence in its institutions. For communities worried about intimidation, political pressure or foreign influence, these safeguards have consequences beyond diplomatic statements. The Shenzhen discussions will therefore test whether Ottawa can strengthen commercial ties while maintaining a firm position on national security. A more productive economic relationship would not necessarily eliminate political disagreements, but direct engagement could provide opportunities to address them.
Carney Could Also Meet Trump as Canada’s Trade Dispute With Washington Continues
Although the planned Trump-Xi-Putin meeting will likely dominate international coverage, another potentially consequential encounter involves Carney and Trump. The Canadian prime minister said on November 10 that he expected to have a conversation with the American president at either the ASEAN gathering in the Philippines or the APEC summit in China. No separate formal bilateral summit had been confirmed in that announcement. Nevertheless, the possibility matters because Canada and the United States remain divided over trade restrictions, market access and the future direction of their economic relationship. Ottawa suspended negotiations in August after rejecting American demands it considered unacceptable.
The economic stakes remain considerable. Washington imposed 50% tariffs on approximately $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods under measures introduced in August, prompting Canadian countermeasures. Although discussions have subsequently resumed, difficult questions remain over industries such as automobiles and steel, alongside protections for Canadian sovereignty and cultural policies. Carney has also emphasized that Trump remains the central decision-maker in negotiations despite Democratic gains in the November congressional elections. APEC operates through voluntary cooperation rather than binding treaties, meaning the gathering cannot automatically resolve the bilateral dispute. For Canadian businesses and workers, the most meaningful outcome would be evidence of progress toward reduced trade barriers, improved predictability and durable agreements that protect Canada’s economic interests.
