Canadians have a clear preference for the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections, but enthusiasm for political change in Washington is not translating into confidence that relations between the two countries will improve.
A new Liaison Strategies poll released November 2, 2026, found that 70% of Canadians would prefer Democrats to control both chambers of Congress, compared with just 10% who favour Republican control. Yet only 23% believe Canada–U.S. relations will improve in the year after the elections, regardless of who wins.
The findings reveal a striking divide between political preferences and economic expectations. With trade disputes, tariffs and uncertainty surrounding North America’s trade agreement continuing to affect Canadian businesses, many Canadians appear to believe that changing the balance of power in Washington will not necessarily resolve the problems facing the relationship.
Canadians Overwhelmingly Prefer Democratic Control of Congress
The latest Liaison Strategies National Tracker shows a substantial preference for Democratic control of Washington’s legislative branch. Seventy per cent of respondents said they would prefer Democrats to control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, while only 10% favoured Republicans holding both chambers. Another 11% preferred divided control, with each party holding one chamber. The results suggest Canadians are not simply interested in the American election as a distant political contest. Many have developed clear preferences about which party should hold power, even though the results will ultimately be decided by American voters.
The preference becomes particularly significant when respondents are asked which outcome would best serve Canada’s interests. On that question, 65% selected Democratic control of both chambers, compared with just 8% who preferred Republican control. The distinction matters because supporting a political party and believing that party would benefit Canada are not necessarily the same thing. Respondents may weigh trade policy, diplomatic stability, economic uncertainty and other considerations differently. Although the results establish a strong preference for Democrats, they do not demonstrate that every respondent supports the party’s broader domestic agenda or believes a Democratic victory would immediately improve Canada’s economic position.
Even Conservative Voters Are More Likely to Support Democrats
One of the most revealing findings is that the preference for Democrats extends beyond Canadians who support the Liberal Party or New Democratic Party. Among federal Conservative voters, 44% said they would prefer Democrats to control both chambers of Congress. That compares with 23% who favour Republican control and 21% who prefer a divided Congress. In other words, Democratic control was the most popular individual option even among Canadians who identify with the country’s main conservative political party. The results illustrate why political preferences cannot always be transferred neatly across the Canada–U.S. border, particularly when voters are evaluating another country’s policies.
The same pattern appears when Conservative respondents consider Canada’s national interests rather than their personal preference. Forty-one per cent said Democratic control of both chambers would be best for Canada, compared with 22% who selected Republican control. That difference suggests Canadian Conservative voters are not necessarily viewing the American contest through the same partisan divisions that shape their preferences at home. However, the findings should not be interpreted as evidence of a wholesale political realignment. The poll does not establish individual motivations, and respondents could be evaluating American parties through several different considerations. What it does demonstrate is that concern about Washington’s direction reaches across traditional Canadian party boundaries.
Just 23% Believe Canada–U.S. Relations Will Improve
Despite the overwhelming preference for Democrats, expectations for the bilateral relationship are considerably more restrained. Only 23% of Canadians believe relations with the United States will improve during the year after the midterm elections, regardless of which party wins. Nearly half, or 48%, expect relations to remain approximately the same, while 18% anticipate further deterioration. Another 11% are unsure. These numbers are important because the question concerns expectations after the election generally, rather than the specific consequences of a Democratic victory. The results therefore measure broader confidence in the relationship’s direction, not simply whether Canadians believe one party would perform better than another.
The findings point to a public that distinguishes between political change and meaningful diplomatic progress. A different congressional majority could alter negotiations, legislative priorities and the degree of scrutiny facing the White House. However, longstanding commercial disagreements and political tensions may continue regardless of who controls Congress. Interestingly, 73% of respondents believe the elections will make at least some difference to Canada’s relationship with the United States. That suggests Canadians are not dismissing the election as irrelevant. Instead, many appear to recognize that political consequences do not automatically translate into improved relations. A change may be significant without necessarily being positive, immediate or substantial enough to restore confidence.
Canadians Believe Congress Could Limit Trump’s Agenda
The possibility of congressional opposition to President Donald Trump appears to be an important consideration. According to Liaison Strategies, 66% of Canadians believe Democratic control of at least one chamber of Congress would limit Trump’s agenda either a great deal or somewhat. However, only 22% believe the restrictions would be substantial. This distinction illustrates the difference between expecting increased political resistance and anticipating a fundamental change in American policy. A Democratic majority could make it more difficult for the administration to advance certain legislative priorities, but control of one chamber would not give Democrats authority over every executive decision.
Congress has important legislative, financial and oversight powers, including the ability to conduct investigations and scrutinize administration policies. Senate control also affects the confirmation of presidential nominees. Trade policy, however, involves a more complicated division of authority. Although the U.S. Constitution gives Congress authority over foreign commerce and tariffs, lawmakers have delegated significant powers to presidents through federal legislation. As a result, a Democratic majority would not automatically eliminate existing tariffs or prevent the administration from exercising lawful trade authorities. For Canadian businesses hoping for immediate relief, that distinction could be crucial. Greater congressional oversight might change Washington’s political calculations without guaranteeing a different outcome in negotiations with Ottawa.
Trump’s Approval Ratings in Canada Remain Extremely Low
The broader political backdrop helps explain why Canadians may favour a change in congressional control. Liaison Strategies found that 81% of Canadians disapprove of Trump’s job performance, including 64% who strongly disapprove. Only 13% approve of the American president’s performance. The results reveal a considerable degree of dissatisfaction that goes beyond a narrow disagreement over individual policies. Although public opinion cannot establish exactly why each respondent favours Democrats, Trump’s unpopularity provides important context for understanding the strong preference for greater opposition to his administration.
The dissatisfaction also extends into Canada’s conservative electorate. Among federal Conservative voters, 66% disapprove of Trump’s performance, compared with 30% who approve. That means disapproval is more than twice as common as approval within this group. The finding is particularly notable because Canadian and American conservative parties are sometimes discussed as though they represent interchangeable political constituencies. In practice, Canadian voters may hold conservative positions on domestic issues while disagreeing strongly with the approach taken by an American Republican administration. The poll suggests that attitudes toward Trump cannot be understood simply by looking at Canadian federal party preferences. It also reinforces an important limitation: opposition to the president does not necessarily mean confidence that his policies can be quickly reversed.
Trade Tariffs and CUSMA Uncertainty Complicate the Outlook
Economic pressures provide another reason Canadians may be cautious about expecting better relations. The Bank of Canada’s October 2026 Monetary Policy Report estimated that the average U.S. tariff rate on Canadian goods had increased to 7.5%, compared with 5.0% in July. Although approximately 80% of Canadian goods exports to the United States remained tariff-free under the Bank’s assumptions, the higher duties affecting certain products have created significant challenges for exposed industries. For manufacturers, exporters and businesses operating across the border, uncertainty about future trade conditions can influence investment decisions, production planning and hiring long before a political dispute is resolved.
The stakes are especially high because Canada remains deeply connected to the American economy. Statistics Canada reported that 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025, down from 75.9% in 2024. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement, known as CUSMA, has added another layer of concern. During the July 1, 2026, joint review, the United States declined to extend the agreement in its existing form. That decision did not terminate CUSMA, which remains in force under its current provisions, but it left questions about its longer-term future unresolved. A different congressional majority could influence the political environment surrounding these negotiations, yet the practical outcome would still depend on decisions by governments and negotiators.
Another Poll Suggests Canadians Are Preparing for a Changed Relationship
Separate research released by Abacus Data on November 2 reinforces the impression that Canadians are preparing for a prolonged period of uncertainty. In research conducted for The Logic, 64% of respondents said Canada should build its economy on the assumption that its relationship with the United States will not return to what it was. Only 26% believed the tensions were temporary and that Canada should remain patient until American politics changes. The findings suggest that many Canadians increasingly see economic adaptation as more dependable than waiting for a political breakthrough in Washington. Such an approach could involve expanding export markets, strengthening domestic production and reducing exposure to unpredictable trade decisions.
The Abacus research also offers an important distinction from the Liaison findings. Asked specifically about a hypothetical Democratic victory in the U.S. midterms, 44% believed it would improve Canada’s economic relationship with the United States, while 34% expected no real difference and 8% anticipated deterioration. That is not directly comparable with Liaison’s 23% figure, which asks about the relationship after the election regardless of the winner. Abacus also found that 57% expected relations to improve after Trump leaves office but believed recovery would take many years. Another 21% expected the relationship never to return to its previous state, while only 12% anticipated a relatively quick recovery. Together, the findings suggest cautious hopes for political improvement alongside much deeper concerns about lasting economic change.
Older Canadians Are Following the Midterms More Closely
Interest in the American election is widespread, although it differs substantially across generations. Liaison Strategies found that 60% of Canadians are following the midterm elections either very closely or somewhat closely. Among respondents aged 65 and older, that proportion rises to 82%. By comparison, only 38% of Canadians between 18 and 34 report following the contest closely. The difference is notable because younger Canadians also tend to favour Democratic control, according to the polling firm’s findings. Political preferences therefore appear to extend beyond the Canadians paying the most attention to the election, even though levels of engagement vary considerably.
The outcome itself remains uncertain as Americans vote on November 3. Research from the Pew Research Center conducted between September 28 and October 4 found that 55% of U.S. adults expected Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives, compared with 40% who expected Republicans to retain it. Expectations for the Senate were much closer, with 46% anticipating Democratic control and 48% predicting Republicans would maintain their majority. These figures represent Americans’ predictions, not election results. The distinction also matters when comparing them with Canadian preferences. Canadians can overwhelmingly favour one outcome while American voters remain divided over which party will actually control Congress. Ultimately, electoral results, congressional priorities and presidential decisions will determine how much political change follows.
The Results Also Arrive at an Important Moment for Canadian Politics
The Liaison poll also provides a snapshot of the domestic political environment facing Prime Minister Mark Carney. Among decided and leaning federal voters, the Liberals held 45% support, compared with 30% for the Conservatives and 14% for the NDP. Carney’s approval rating stood at 64%, with 28% disapproving. Those figures suggest the federal government retains considerable support as it manages an increasingly difficult relationship with Washington. However, the poll does not establish that American politics or trade concerns are directly responsible for the Liberals’ standing. Domestic issues and perceptions of political leadership may also influence voting intentions.
The research was conducted between October 18 and October 31, 2026, among 1,000 Canadians using automated telephone interviews and random-digit dialling across landlines and mobile phones. Results were weighted using targets based on the 2021 Census. Liaison reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for the overall sample, with greater uncertainty for smaller groups. The findings represent public opinion before Americans cast their midterm ballots rather than a forecast of what will happen afterward. Their central message is nevertheless significant: Canadians have a strong preference for who should control Congress, but substantially fewer expect an immediate improvement in relations. For Ottawa, the challenge remains preparing for whichever political outcome emerges while protecting Canadian economic interests in a relationship that many people no longer expect to return quickly to normal.
