Quebec’s election campaign has reached an uncomfortable split-screen moment for the governing Coalition Avenir Québec. Premier Christine Fréchette is improving her personal standing and is now the leader voters trust most to defend Quebec against Donald Trump’s tariffs, yet a much larger force is working against her: six in ten Quebecers say they want a different party in power. The latest Léger–Le Journal–TVA findings, released less than a month before the October 5 vote, show a race where leadership impressions and appetite for change are moving in opposite directions. The Parti Québécois still leads in voting intentions, the CAQ has recovered sharply from its spring lows, and the Liberals remain close behind. At the same time, trade tensions with the United States have become one of the campaign’s clearest tests of economic credibility.
A 60% Desire for Change Defines the Race
The most consequential number in the new Léger findings may not be a party score at all. Sixty per cent of respondents say they want a change of government and a new party to lead Quebec, while only 18 per cent prefer the current government to remain in power. That creates a problem for the CAQ: even if Fréchette performs well personally, many voters appear to be judging the election through a broader desire for turnover after years of CAQ rule.
That distinction matters because voters can hold two views at once. They can believe Fréchette is handling the campaign competently while still wanting a different government. Léger describes the desire for change as the dominant force in the race. For the CAQ, the challenge is larger than improving a leader’s image. It must persuade voters that new leadership and stronger economic management are enough to outweigh the appetite for a new party.
The PQ Still Leads, but the Race Remains Competitive
The Parti Québécois remains in first place with 29 per cent support among decided voters, while the CAQ sits at 23 per cent and the Quebec Liberal Party at 22 per cent. The Conservative Party of Quebec is at 15 per cent and Québec solidaire at 10 per cent. Those numbers leave the PQ ahead, but not in runaway territory, especially with the CAQ and Liberals separated by a single percentage point.
That tight clustering means small movements can matter. One week earlier, Léger had the PQ at 29 per cent, the CAQ at 24 per cent and the Liberals at 22 per cent, so the latest changes are modest. Still, Quebec elects its government riding by riding, meaning regional concentrations of support can matter as much as province-wide percentages. Current reporting based on the polling indicates that a minority-government outcome remains plausible, making regional battlegrounds particularly important.
Fréchette’s Personal Numbers Are Stronger Than Her Party’s
Fréchette’s biggest advantage is that her personal ratings are stronger than her party’s vote share. She is tied with Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at 23 per cent on the question of who would make the best premier. Léger also reports that Fréchette has gained five points on that measure since August 11, a meaningful improvement during the run-up to the election.
She also leads when voters are asked who has run the best campaign this week: 21 per cent name Fréchette, compared with 15 per cent for St-Pierre Plamondon. That is useful political capital because campaigns can narrow the gap between dissatisfaction with a government and confidence in its leader. But the contrast is sharp. A leader tied for first on premier preference is heading a party six points behind the PQ, underscoring how much baggage can remain attached to an incumbent brand even when its leader improves.
Trump’s Tariffs Have Become Fréchette’s Strongest Issue
The trade war is clearly Fréchette’s strongest issue. Léger finds that 24 per cent of respondents see her as the leader best able to defend Quebec’s interests and fight Donald Trump’s tariffs. She also ranks first on developing the economy and creating jobs, at 22 per cent. Those are closely connected files in a province where manufacturing, aluminum, aerospace and other export-heavy industries depend heavily on U.S. demand.
Her edge on tariffs has strengthened during the campaign. In Léger’s September 1 results, Fréchette led the same issue at 21 per cent. The latest result suggests the trade confrontation is helping her establish a clearer leadership lane, even if it has not produced a broad CAQ surge. Tariffs may therefore be less a guaranteed vote-winner than a credibility test: voters can trust Fréchette more than her rivals on the file without deciding that this alone justifies keeping the CAQ in office.
Quebecers Back Retaliation Even When Prices Could Rise
Quebecers appear willing to accept some economic pain in the trade fight. In Léger’s September 1 findings, 53 per cent said tariffs were among the important issues in the campaign, although only 10 per cent called them the single most important issue. At the same time, 66 per cent supported imposing counter-tariffs on certain U.S. products even when told those measures could increase prices for Canadian consumers.
That combination helps explain the politics facing every party. Voters are not treating tariffs as the only issue, but they are showing a high tolerance for retaliation. Canada’s new counter-tariffs took effect September 8, with rates of 15, 25 and 50 per cent on selected U.S. goods covering $27.6 billion in imports. The measures reach steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics, turning an abstract trade confrontation into something businesses and households could increasingly feel in purchasing decisions and costs.
Quebec’s Trade Numbers Show Why the Issue Matters
The economic stakes are already visible in Quebec’s trade data. The Institut de la statistique du Québec reported that exports to the United States fell 7.6 per cent in the first six months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Exports to other countries rose 8.7 per cent over that period, partially cushioning the decline, but total international merchandise exports were still down 3.0 per cent.
The long-term dependence remains substantial. In 2025, Quebec exported $121.6 billion in merchandise internationally, with $84.8 billion going to the United States. That meant the U.S. accounted for 69.8 per cent of Quebec’s merchandise exports, even after its share fell from 73.3 per cent in 2024. For workers and firms in exposed industries, those percentages translate into order books, investment plans, overtime and hiring. That is why tariffs can carry political weight even when voters rank other concerns alongside the trade confrontation.
The CAQ Is Using Incumbency to Show Immediate Action
The CAQ is trying to use the powers of government to show that it can respond immediately. On the eve of the federal counter-tariffs taking effect, Quebec’s cabinet adopted measures allowing public contracts to be reserved for companies with operations in Quebec or elsewhere in Canada. The government can also require local production or processing and apply a preferential margin of up to 15 per cent based on Quebec or Canadian value added.
Fréchette said the measures could inject an additional $1.5 billion into Quebec’s economy over four months. Politically, the move gives the CAQ a concrete example to pair with its argument that experience matters during a trade shock. It also invites scrutiny because governing parties must defend major decisions made during an election campaign. For voters, the practical test is whether directing more public procurement toward local firms can materially offset pressure created by U.S. tariffs and Canada’s countermeasures.
The CAQ Rebound Is Real, but Its Ceiling Is Still Visible
The CAQ’s recovery from its earlier collapse is significant. Léger notes that the party fell as low as 9 per cent in March but has climbed to 23 per cent in the latest measure. That 14-point rebound shows the governing party is no longer in the near-terminal position suggested by its spring numbers. Fréchette’s arrival and the trade fight have helped restore competitiveness, even if the party remains behind the PQ.
Yet the broader trend shows why the race remains unstable. Since March, the Quebec Liberals have dropped from 33 per cent to 22 per cent, while the PQ has eased from 33 per cent to 29 per cent. Large shifts have already happened within months. The standings therefore represent a more competitive contest than in spring, but the 60 per cent desire for change remains a formidable obstacle the CAQ must overcome. A recovery in voting intentions is not necessarily the same thing as public readiness to grant another mandate.
More Voters Are Locking In Their Choice
One reason the next few weeks matter is that voter choices are beginning to harden. Léger reports that 56 per cent of decided voters now consider their choice final. That is barely changed from 55 per cent a week earlier, but it is notably higher than the 47 per cent recorded in June. The pool of voters still open to persuasion is gradually shrinking as election day approaches.
That trend cuts both ways. The PQ benefits from leading while more voters lock in, but the CAQ still has time to convert Fréchette’s stronger leadership ratings into party support. The Liberals, only one point behind the CAQ, can also benefit from a late shift. Polling firmness matters when the top three parties are separated by seven points. Every debate, economic announcement or escalation in the Canada-U.S. dispute now lands before an electorate becoming progressively less fluid, making mistakes harder to reverse and breakthroughs increasingly valuable.
Each Rival Owns a Different Issue Heading Into October 5
The campaign is not being fought on tariffs alone, and Léger’s issue results show distinct strengths for the major rivals. St-Pierre Plamondon leads on immigration at 25 per cent. On reducing government spending and the deficit, he scores 17 per cent while Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime is close behind at 16 per cent. On housing affordability, Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal is at 17 per cent, tied with St-Pierre Plamondon.
That fragmentation helps explain why no leader has fully dominated. Quebec voters are assigning different policy files to different leaders rather than granting one contender a broad advantage. The election is scheduled for October 5, with roughly 6.4 million electors and 125 ridings. Léger questioned 1,008 eligible Quebec voters online from September 4 to 6 and weighted the results across major demographic factors. With less than a month remaining, Fréchette is improving, but demand for political change remains larger than any single leader’s momentum.
